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with the reduction in summer rainfall. Locally this could lead to an exacerbation of the severity of hot spells, although large-scale warming and circulation changes are expected to be the primary driver of increases in the occurrence of hot spells. 3.3.4 By the end of the 21st century, lying snow

and circulation changes are expected to be the primary driver of increases in the occurrence of hot spells. 3.3.4 By the end of the 21st century, lying snow decreases by almost 100% over much of the UK, although smaller decreases are seen over mountainous regions in the north and west. 4. Marine

eastwards on the 10th followed by a day of sunshine and wintry showers, some of the showers wintry even at low levels with 6 cm of lying snow at Middleton (Derbyshire). A ridge of high pressure brought a quieter day on the 11th but cloud and rain spread from the west late in the day, giving 48.8 mm at Shap

for Western Kenya would cover five additional counties that lie on the eastern inland fringe of the climatic zone: Uasin Gishu, Nandi, Kericho, Nyamira and Kisii. Time of publication and period of forecast coverage The daily forecast would be issued by KMD at 16.00 seven days per week. II would cover

regions reporting lying snow. There was a marked contrast in maximum temps north to south, with maxes struggling to break zero in Scotland, but hitting the mid-teens Celsius in southern counties of England, the contrast diminishing between the 2nd and 4th as the cold air swept south to all parts

, Table 1). • The forecast probability of more than 25 storms is 5% (Fig. 2b, Table 1). Page 6 of 20 2a) 2b) Figure 2: a) Probability that the number of Atlantic sector tropical storms, in the July to November 2008 period, will lie within given ranges. Red = forecast probabilities for 2008; green

effect was important except for in the summer months. Altitude and terrain shape variables were obviously very important for days of snow lying and falling, as well as for rainfall intensity and the greatest annual 5-day rainfall total. The independent variables used in the regression model for each

of uncertainty it is only a ‘snapshot’ of current scientific understanding and modelling capability. Areas where there is good model agreement is likely to suggest confidence in that projection, however models which lie outside of it should not be neglected without good reason. The data used to provide

events Extreme value theory (e.g. Coles, 2001) is used in climate research to derive probability distributions that describe the expected occurrence of rare events (e.g. IPCC, 2012). Such events lie in the far upper or lower tails of the full distribution of values for the relevant variable, for example

experiencing “ice days” where temperatures remain below zero. Night-time temperatures will be even more severe. Where snow lies, values could plunge to -10°C or -15°C, while towns and cities may see lows around -5°C. Frost will be widespread and persistent, with some areas remaining frozen throughout