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change adds complexity, requiring a different approach. In the figure each cross represents a single location in the UK. It is evident that in the first decade after the forcing increase the precipitation over the UK actually shows a reduction for most locations in this example (the crosses lie below

results show poor reliability • January – June 2023 • Compares forecast probability to how often Cbs are observed. • These match for a perfectly reliable forecast. • The results would lie on the dashed line. www.metoffice.gov.uk © Crown Copyright 2023, Met Office To improve reliability and resolution

) Wm -2 4 4 4 4 Radiation, net short wave (rss) Wm -2 4 4 4 4 Relative humidity (hurs) % 4 4 4 4 Sea level pressure (psl) hPa 4 4 4 4 Sea water level m 4 Snow: snowfall amount (prsn) mm 4 4 Snow: lying snow amount (snw) mm 4 4 Specific humidity (huss) 4 4 4 4 Temperature, maximum (tasmax) °C 4 4 4 4 4

) Wm -2 4 4 4 4 Radiation, net short wave (rss) Wm -2 4 4 4 4 Relative humidity (hurs) % 4 4 4 4 Sea level pressure (psl) hPa 4 4 4 4 Sea water level m 4 Snow: snowfall amount (prsn) mm 4 4 Snow: lying snow amount (snw) mm 4 4 Specific humidity (huss) 4 4 4 4 Temperature, maximum (tasmax) °C 4 4 4 4 4

be contacted with regard to FOIA and EIR. The ultimate decision whether to publish or disclose information provided to the Met Office lies with the Met Office. OFFICIAL 17 OFFICIAL Annex A – WISER Theory of Change OFFICIAL 18

there were several snow events these were mostly fairly typical for the time of year when they fell. Snowfalls in mid- and late- January generally affected northern areas but lying snow was briefly recorded as far south as the Home Counties and parts of the south-west. Depths exceeding 5cm were mainly

12, the evolving NH extratropical drift becomes large, lying between 1-2 °C during years 80-100 (equivalent to the UKCP18 baseline period of 1980-2000) and nearly reaching 4 °C by year 150, after which it reduces more slowly. In member 11, the drift is more modest (~ 0.5 °C) during years 80-100

with increasing return period over the southern UK (the observations typically lie within the 12-member ensemble spread, Figure 2). However, all models have biases compared to the real world, but they can still provide useful information. Over the northern regions, the CPM generally underestimates

(Mediterranean, humid sub-tropical and maritime west coast) Temperate climate zones lie between the tropics and the polar circles. The changes in these regions between summer and winter are generally subtle, warm or cool, rather than extreme, burning hot or freezing cold. However, a temperate climate

troposphere shifts northwards during break and lies approximately above the lower monsoon trough. This seems to provide an effective process of removing ascending air in the lower monsoon trough causing exceptionally heavy rainfall over Assam and along the foot of the Himalayas. Specifically