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simulations that have not been initialised with observations are shown in green. In both cases, the shading represents the probable range, such that the observations are expected to lie within the shading 90% of the time. All temperatures are represented as anomalies from the 1981-2010 mean. The results

locate storms within 200 miles of the radar station. In addition, tropical cyclones are tracked by satellites, which provide very useful information both to forecasters and numerical forecast models. "Official" responsibility for forecasting tropical cyclones in the areas affected lies with the regional

30° above the horizon, have an apparent width of more than three fingers at arm's length. When in the form of dark rolls (top photograph) the edges often merge together to form a continuous layer. Sometimes the elements lie in parallel bands (middle photograph). Due to perspective these may appear

with a hardening of the urban environment and inadequate drainage to deal with high quantities of water, will place urban areas at increased risk of flooding. Most of West Africa’s largest cities are coastal and low-lying and are therefore susceptible to inundation by sea water. Due to higher sea levels

level would have if starting at the wet bulb temperature, it was brought at a saturated adiabatic lapse rate, to the standard pressure of 1000hPa) on pressure levels. Liquid water equivalent (LWE) depth of the snow lying on the surface (ground). Typically, water is 10 times as dense as snow so

, over the Pennines, Cumbrian Hills, and more widely in Scotland, with up to 15cm falling over the Shetlands on the 7th. A cold easterly airstream together with lying snow allowed temperatures to fall to -10°C or below over Sutherland. The UK got a brief respite from the wet and windy weather between

Violent storm Exceptionally high waves (small and medium-sized ships might be for a time lost behind the waves). The sea is completely covered with long white patches of foam lying along the direction of the wind. Everywhere the edges of the wave crests are blown into froth. Visibility affected 60

of lying snow at Strathy East (Sutherland). The 4th and 5th were generally cloudy, though with some brightness. Rain spread from the west late on the 5th and crossed the country overnight, resulting in a mild night with a minimum of 10.2 °C at Lossiemouth (Morayshire), followed by sunshine

of 40cm in some higher-lying Sheffield suburbs. There was also significant transport disruption with road closures and several thousand affected by power outages in Northern Ireland. A similar combination of road closures and local power outages affected parts of North Wales. After a battle between

high-pressure systems to dominate, resulting in calmer, drier weather. What causes the jet stream? The jet stream exists mainly due to temperature contrasts between the equator and the poles. In the northern hemisphere, cold air lies to the north of the jet stream, while warmer air is to the south