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, such that the observations are expected to lie within the shading 90% of the time. The most recent forecast (blue) starts from November 2013. All data are rolling annual mean values. The gap between the black curves and blue shading arises because the last observed value represents the period November

, from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5), that have not been initialised with observations are shown in green. In all cases, the shading represents the probable range, such that the observations are expected to lie within the shading 90% of the time. The most recent forecast

is linked closely with temperature, with falls rarely occurring if the temperature is higher than 4 °C. The numbers of days with snow falling and snow lying increase with latitude and altitude, so values reflect topography. Snow is comparatively rare near sea level in Wales, but much more frequent over

to February 2006, when about 75% of the normal rainfall occurred over the area, making it the driest such period since 1932/34. Snowfall The occurrence of snow is linked closely with temperature, with falls rarely occurring if the temperature is higher than 4 °C. For snow to lie for any length of time

and West on 17, with heavier snow across Southern England and Wales on 18 and heavy snow in the SW on 20 December. The UK remained under this bitterly cold Arctic air until Boxing Day and lying snow remained until 26 to 27 December. Significant weather event During both spells of extreme weather

are shown in green. In all cases, the shading represents the probable range, such that the observations are expected to lie within the shading 90% of the time. The most recent forecast (blue) starts from November 2019. All data are rolling 12-month mean values. The gap between the black curves

Project phase 5 (CMIP5), that have not been initialised with observations are shown in green. In all cases, the shading represents the probable range, such that the observations are expected to lie within the shading 90% of the time. The most recent forecast (blue) starts from November 2017. All data

, the shading represents the probable range, such that the observations are expected to lie within the shading 90% of the time. The most recent forecast (blue) starts from November 2015. All data are rolling 12-month mean values. The gap between the black curves and blue shading arises because the last

, and 22 model simulations, from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5), that have not been initialised with observations are shown in green. In all cases, the shading represents the probable range, such that the observations are expected to lie within the shading 90% of the time

, such that the observations are expected to lie within the shading 90% of the time. The most recent forecast (blue) starts from November 2020. All data are rolling 12-month mean values. The gap between the black curves and blue shading arises because the last observed value represents the period November 2019