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, such that the observations are expected to lie within the shading 90% of the time. The most recent forecast (blue) starts from November 2013. All data are rolling annual mean values. The gap between the black curves and blue shading arises because the last observed value represents the period November

, from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5), that have not been initialised with observations are shown in green. In all cases, the shading represents the probable range, such that the observations are expected to lie within the shading 90% of the time. The most recent forecast

to February 2006, when about 75% of the normal rainfall occurred over the area, making it the driest such period since 1932/34. Snowfall The occurrence of snow is linked closely with temperature, with falls rarely occurring if the temperature is higher than 4 °C. For snow to lie for any length of time

are shown in green. In all cases, the shading represents the probable range, such that the observations are expected to lie within the shading 90% of the time. The most recent forecast (blue) starts from November 2019. All data are rolling 12-month mean values. The gap between the black curves

and West on 17, with heavier snow across Southern England and Wales on 18 and heavy snow in the SW on 20 December. The UK remained under this bitterly cold Arctic air until Boxing Day and lying snow remained until 26 to 27 December. Significant weather event During both spells of extreme weather

affecting low lying land, roads and properties. “Taken together, it’s therefore really important for people to continue to plan ahead this weekend and check the range of weather, travel and flooding advice available. “Ministers will continue to do everything that we can to monitor and manage the situation

Project phase 5 (CMIP5), that have not been initialised with observations are shown in green. In all cases, the shading represents the probable range, such that the observations are expected to lie within the shading 90% of the time. The most recent forecast (blue) starts from November 2017. All data

, such that the observations are expected to lie within the shading 90% of the time. The most recent forecast (blue) starts from November 2020. All data are rolling 12-month mean values. The gap between the black curves and blue shading arises because the last observed value represents the period November 2019

, and 22 model simulations, from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5), that have not been initialised with observations are shown in green. In all cases, the shading represents the probable range, such that the observations are expected to lie within the shading 90% of the time

, ..., 2005 are shown in red, and 22 model simulations, from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5), that have not been initialised with observations are shown in green. In all cases, the shading represents the probable range, such that the observations are expected to lie within