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magnetic connectivity � some advance warning? ~6h here at 161° At L5 at 60° from S-E line? New developments Data assimilation primer �“analysis”: Model solar wind state brought closer to observations Put analysis into forecast model ENLIL Ability to provide a more accurate running forecast to end users

, consistent with wet bias in rainfall ● Ascent bias is halved in CP4 simulation, consistent with reduced wet bias Hart, Washington, Stratton (2018) GRL What of S. Africa in future CP4? Local Hadley cell seasonality change: CMIP5 Hadley cell seasonality change: SH New Puzzle with new CP4? 1. Original CP4

Hadley Centre Fiona Carroll Dr Helene Hewitt Ann Keen Dr Jason Lowe Rachel McCarthy Dr Jeff Ridley Dr Peter Stott Dr Jonathan Tinker Alex West Dr Kate Willett References Blunden, J. and Arndt, D. S. Eds., (2013) “State of the Climate in 2012”. Bulletin. American Meteorology Society (in press) Church, J

a westerly air flow over the UK, a cooler direction than if air was being brought up from the south, and areas such as Spain or Africa. Therefore, we are not likely to reach heatwave conditions, but temperatures will still be warm reaching the low 20’s for many, particularly in the South West

the start of the month until fronts pushed in from the west on 14th/15th. Warmer continental air then pushed in, leading to a warm and sunny Easter weekend with maximum temperatures well into the 20's °C. During the last week the warmth declined, and there was rain in most areas, with Storm Hannah giving

, while the second storm will be ‘female’ and named Bronagh,  following the alternating male/female pattern established by the US National Hurricane Center in the 1970’s.  Evelyn Cusack, Head of Forecasting at Met Éireann, said: “The last 12 months have seen some extreme weather around the Globe as well

of supersaturation (RH>100%) with respect to water and persistent contrails tend to form in conditions of super-saturation (RH>100%) with respect to ice. References: Haywood, J. M., R. P. Allan, J. Bornemann, P. M. Forster, P. N. Francis, S. Milton, G. Radel, A. Rap, K. P. Shine, and R. Thorpe (2009), A case study

incurred by it as a result of such termination. 10. TERRORIST FINANCING Consistent with numerous United Nations Security Council resolutions including S/RES/1269 (1999), S/RES/1368 (2001) and S/RES/1373 (2001), both the Met Office and the Beneficiary are firmly committed to the international fight

soils are usually near saturation. The Severn valley is particularly prone, since it drains extensive upland areas in mid- Wales. At Easter 1998 a stationary band of heavy rain that stretched across the Midlands from Worcester to Peterborough resulted in floods in which 5 people died and 1000's were

/ projects/wiser The views expressed in this publication are the sole responsibility of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of FCDO or the Met Office, UK. Images: I-stock Citation. Watkiss, P. and Cimato, F. (2022). Primer on Building the Economic Case for Regional and National