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• Understanding long-range forecasts: Science, skill, and application

  these influences. The Met Office’s decadal prediction system, DePreSys, starts its forecasts from observed atmospheric and oceanic conditions and incorporates projected emissions and natural climate forcings. Retrospective tests show that DePreSys improves predictions of global average temperature

• hctn_summer_2025_analysis_v1.1.pdf

  ) as the hottest summer on record. A rapid attribution analysis was conducted to quantify the human-influence on the likelihood of reaching or exceeding the 2025 summer mean temperature. The approach provides estimates of the exceedance probability of similar events in the climate of a ‘natural’ world

• hctn_summer_2025_analysis_v1.pdf

  ) as the hottest summer on record. A rapid attribution analysis was conducted to quantify the human-influence on the likelihood of reaching or exceeding the 2025 summer mean temperature. The approach provides estimates of the exceedance probability of similar events in the climate of a ‘natural

• hctn_summer_2025_analysis_v11pdf

  ) as the hottest summer on record. A rapid attribution analysis was conducted to quantify the human-influence on the likelihood of reaching or exceeding the 2025 summer mean temperature. The approach provides estimates of the exceedance probability of similar events in the climate of a ‘natural’ world

• hctn_summer_2025_analysis_v1pdf

  ) as the hottest summer on record. A rapid attribution analysis was conducted to quantify the human-influence on the likelihood of reaching or exceeding the 2025 summer mean temperature. The approach provides estimates of the exceedance probability of similar events in the climate of a ‘natural

• Looking back on a storm-laden season

  Skip to main content Weather & climate Research programmes Services About us Careers Menu Search site Search Back Weather & climate Everything you need to know about the forecast, and making the most of the weather. Find a forecast Warnings & advice Warnings & advice UK weather warnings UK Storm

• Earth plays it cool, but global warming is unrelenting

  . The Met Office global temperature forecast for 2021 is slightly lower than some previous years since 2015, largely because of the influence of La Niña in the tropical Pacific, where sea surface temperatures are 1.0-2.0 °C below average. La Niña is the opposing side of El Niño and has a temporary

• hctn_3consecutivetropicalnightsuk_v1.pdf

  changes. The attribution protocol represents a step towards delivering attribution as a service. Climate attribution compares the likelihood of an event in the current climate to its likelihood in a counterfactual simulated world with only natural forcing (i.e. without human influence). This approach

• hctn_3consecutivetropicalnightsuk_v1pdf

  changes. The attribution protocol represents a step towards delivering attribution as a service. Climate attribution compares the likelihood of an event in the current climate to its likelihood in a counterfactual simulated world with only natural forcing (i.e. without human influence). This approach

• UK regional climates

  Summaries of the climate characteristics of 11 regions of the UK

  Their focus is on the latest 30 year averaging period of 1981-2010 and much of the commentary refers to events during this period. However, the effects of climate change, both natural and man-made, may need to be borne in mind for any data applications. Analyses are provided of the main weather