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international modelling centres. Much More Likely Below Normal Near-Normal Above Normal Likely Likely Much More Likely Climate Outlook Africa: November to August Overview 5 Global Outlook - Rainfall Outlook: El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) – Whilst oceanic indicators, including sea surface temperatures

(November-January). However, other centres (such as BoM) have predictions which are much more finely balanced between ENSO-neutral and La Niña. Clearly, there is some uncertainty with predictions. Most likely is that ENSOneutral conditions will persist for the next couple of months, with any transition

Climate Prediction Centre / NCEP statement (PDF) stating that: “There is a ~60% chance of a transition from La Niña to ENSO-Neutral during the Northern Hemisphere spring 2021 (April-June).” Despite this trend La Niña will continue to be a dominant driver of rainfall patterns, especially in the tropics

AND APPLICATIONS CENTRE (ICPAC) W2SIP/NECJOGHA Greater Horn of Africa Climate Communication Workshop GHACOF51, ENTEBBE, UGANDA 9 th – 10 th FEBRUARY 2019 Program 8 th February 2019 Arrival of Participants and Check in Day One: Saturday February 9 th 2019 8:00-9:00 Arrival and Registration

August until the minimum sea ice extent in mid-September, melting returned to above-average levels, associated with degradation of the ice in the Beaufort and Chukchi Seas. Figure 5. 3-week running mean sea ice extent change for 2021 (red), compared to 2020 (dark blue), previous years from 1979 (light

PWS International Products Consultation Executive Summary Although this was a fairly light touch consultation due to limited Secretariat resources, the evidence in this report is enough to be able to give some broad conclusions to the questions posed: 1. Are the current international services

shading represent values above the 80th (Warm) and 90th (Hot) percentile, respectively; regions shaded in light and dark blue indicate values below the 20th (Cool) and 10th (Cold) percentile, with respect to the 1981-2010 climatology. The data used in this map are from the NOAA Climate Prediction Center

southern areas by midday on the 2nd, with sunshine for most parts but isolated showers over Cumbria. The 3rd was cloudier, with rain, mostly light and patchy, for northern and central parts. Again it was generally cloudy on the 4th, with local mist or fog patches first thing, and rain, heavy at times

months there is ~95% chance of La Niña continuing. The latest NOAA Climate Prediction Centre / NCEP statement (PDF) states that: “La Niña is expected to continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2020-21 (~95% chance during January-March), with a potential transition to ENSO-neutral during

and international organisations such as the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). The Met Office frequently enables academic research to achieve real-world impact, by academic research, by utilising cutting-edge research in the delivery of the operational services it provides