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– Fit Functions • Fit function for correlation coefficient ρ HV takes the form: with x = 1 - ρ HV . • Fit function of differential phase Φ DP takes the form: f x = a ⋅ s ⋅ x μ ⋅ e −λ with x = Φ DP - max Φ DP + 10° , where max Φ DP denotes distribution’s maximum, a is an amplitude factor, s a stretch

for the global latitude-longitude grid used in Numerical Weather Prediction [Buckeridge & Scheichl, 2010]. The key idea is to use conditional coarsening in the N-S direction while increasing the mesh spacing uniformly in the E-W direction.  The Figure below shows an example of a semi-coarsened mesh. Using

The news comes as provisional figures from the Met Office show Autumn 2022 (September, October, November) was the third warmest on record for the UK, with an average mean temperature of 11.1C, topped only by 2011 and 2006’s Autumn figures, in a series which goes back to 1884.   In addition

saw extremely high levels of tropical cyclone activity in the Western North Pacific. This was found to be mainly caused by sea surface warming in the eastern and central Pacific, with human influence largely increasing the odds of this event. Zhang et al 2016 Funk, C., Shukla, S., Hoell, A. and Livneh

., Morton, D., Giglio, L., Chen, Y., van der Werf, G., Kasibhatla, P., DeFries, R., Collatz, G., Hantson, S., Kloster, S., Bachelet, D., Forrest, M., Lasslop, G., Li, F., Mangeon, S., Melton, J., Yue, C., Randerson, J. (2017): A human-driven decline in global burned area, Science, 356, 1356-1361

the Northern Hemisphere (90N-20N). The graphs below display the accuracy of these two forecasts, with the smaller the error being a better value forecast to airline operators. Performance measure: ≤ 2.85m/s for Wind and ≤ 0.56K for Temperature (based on 12-month mean values) Root Mean Square Vector

value forecast to airline operators. Performance measure: ≤ 2.85m/s for Wind and ≤ 0.56K for Temperature (based on 12-month mean values) Root Mean Square Vector Error 4.00 3.80 3.60 3.40 3.20 3.00 2.80 Northern Hemisphere T+24 Wind (m/s) at 250hPa Monthly Rolling 12-month mean Target Latest value

Hemisphere (90N-20N). The graphs below display the accuracy of these two forecasts, with the smaller the error being a better value forecast to airline operators. Performance measure: ≤ 2.85m/s for Wind and ≤ 0.56K for Temperature (based on 12-month mean values) Root Mean Square Vector Error 4.00 3.80

display the accuracy of these two forecasts, with the smaller the error being a better value forecast to airline operators. Performance measure: ≤ 2.85m/s for Wind and ≤ 0.56K for Temperature (based on 12-month mean values) Root Mean Square Vector Error 4.00 3.80 3.60 3.40 3.20 3.00 2.80 Northern

Representation of uncertainty P r o c e s s e s Marine processes Earth system processes Verification Data Curation Component models Systems Data workflow Use case work packages 1. Component models Component models 2. System co-design 3. System integration Systems Data workflow Separation of Concerns Co