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• Microsoft Word - NEB_upd_2021

  with statistical @ Crown copyright 2020 1 predictions from pre-season sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic and Pacific. The detailed methodology is described in Part 2. For this forecast the GloSea5 component comprised an aggregation of 42 GloSea5 predictions (ensemble members) initialised between

• DIGITAL VERSION

  Climate trends and risks in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region Current climate for zones in the MENA region Future climate risks by the 2050s in the MENA region Food security by 2050s Water security by 2050s Atlantic Ocean Mediterranean Sea Shorter growing seasons in many areas

• ukcp18-soil-moisture-factsheet-november-2025pdf

  are few, so we use proxy observations (see ‘What do the projections show in recent climate?’ for more details). In the recent climate (1980-2000), the Global PPE-15 and Regional RCM-12 models agree well with the proxy observations in terms of duration and magnitude of the summer dry season, but show

• Week ahead: Turning fresher with showers, rain and the risk of thunderstorms

  in temperatures. While central and southern areas will hold on to some warmth initially, conditions will steadily become fresher as northerly winds develop. A wetter week for many areas One of the biggest changes this week will be the increased likelihood of rainfall. Rain and showers are expected

• Deep Dive: How a Pacific hurricane could influence the UK’s weather

  a frontal system approaching the UK on Saturday. One operational forecast shows the front producing persistent and sometimes heavy rain across Northern Ireland, southern Scotland, northern England and north Wales. However, this wetter outcome is in the minority among the range of available model

• met-office_climate-change-impacts-for-ukraine_report_08dec2021_englishpdf

  Ukraine already experiencing water stress and reductions in annual rainfall totals are seeing increases in the frequency of prolonged heatwaves with an expanding summer season and reductions in the dominant wet season rainfall totals, and reductions in groundwater recharge 6,12,69 . While seasonal

• ukcp18_local_update_faqpdf

  does not change the UKCP18 headline message of a greater chance of warmer, wetter winters and hotter, drier summers across the UK in future (Murphy et al, 2018). For 2061-80, under a high greenhouse gas emissions scenario (RCP8.5), the update suggests winters will be warmer by 3.3°C (2.0-3.5°C) 2

• Storm Antoni to bring wind and rain

  will still see a very wet day, especially in north Wales and north England. “Storm Antoni will also bring strong winds to a swathe of Wales, southwest England and southern coastal areas of England. The strongest winds will affect parts southwest England and southwest Wales where exposed coasts and high

• This summer will ‘almost certainly’ be warmest on record for the UK

     So far this summer, rainfall is tracking below average, with 72% of the of the whole summer’s long-term average recorded. At this point in the season, you’d expect 93%. There is of course much regional variation, with central, southern and eastern parts of England and Wales so far especially dry

• Compounding climate challenges for UK businesses

  events. Recent hot summers have seen multiple wildfire incidents affecting forestry, agriculture, and recreational lands.   “What we’re seeing is a concerning shift in UK wildfire patterns,” explains Stacey New, Met Office Senior Scientist. “The UK’s annual wildfire season has lengthened over the past