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, east Hot and elsewhere near normal. ^^^Note: Northern Pakistan was very wet in November. Little rainfall observed across the rest of the country. * Region usually experiences less than 10mm/month rainfall during the month (dry season). Climate Outlook Asia: September to June Current Status 11 Current

Indonesia outside of the main wet season (April to October). The frequency of intense rainfall events is expected to increase across the region. Conversely, the number of consecutive dry days*** are projected to increase across the Maritime Southeast Asia by 5-15 days per year by the 2050s

and wetter and stormier winters (Hunt and Zaz, 2023). When ENSO is positive, it leads to wetter than average winter in Central Asia (Chen et al., 2018). A summary of drivers of climate variability and their regional relevance for Central and South Asia is provided in Table C1. 14 Table C1: Summary

. By the 2050s, all South Asia will become significantly wetter in the monsoon season (June to September), particularly in southern Pakistan and western India. By the 2050s, the eastern Himalayas, northern India, southern Nepal, and Bhutan will become drier in winter. In the high mountain areas of South

drivers of the South Asian climate are the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). These are irregular coupled atmosphere-ocean oscillations which drive variability in monsoon rainfall from year-to-year. In general, the warm (cool) phase of ENSO results in a drier (wetter

surface temperature and sea level), precipitation, by a significant margin, exhibits the most uncertainty in respect to spatial climate trends across Southeast Asia. Projected changes for 2050 in rainfall over Southeast Asia vary, depending on model, sub-region, and season (high confidence

the forecast data into X (Predictor) and the number of wet days into Y (Predictand) and setup CPT to produce precipitation maps plots for ROC below- and abovenormal number of wet days greater than a daily rainfall threshold of 0 mm or 10 mm, and the probabilistic forecasts for season of choice (OND

contrasting precipitation trends across the South Asia region with some areas experiencing a wetting trend and others a drying trend. By the 2050s, all of South Asia will become significantly wetter in the monsoon season (June-September), particularly in southern Pakistan and western India. Eastern

) Srivastava et al. (2018) WMO (2008) Rajeevan et al. (2008) 2.1.2 Case study: Floods across South Asia region in 2007 The 2007 summer monsoon led to widespread flooding across the South Asia region, the main areas affected are shown in Figure 6. Over the duration of the monsoon season, 2000 people

An assessment of 12 dynamical seasonal prediction systems is conducted, assessing their ability to predict South Asian seasonal precipitation during the two key monsoon seasons; southwest (June to September (JJAS)) and northeast (October to November (OND)). This research has been conducted as part