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of tropical storm frequency using a multi-model ensemble. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor Soc., 132, 647–666. © Crown copyright 2009 - 10 – Vitart, F., M. R. Huddleston, M. Déqué, D. Peake, T. N. Palmer, T. N. Stockdale, M. K. Davey, S. Ineson, and A. Weisheimer (2007). Dynamically-based seasonal forecasts
). The recent increase in Atlantic hurricane activity: Causes and implications. Science, 293, 474–479. Jarvinen, B. R., Neumann, C. J., Davis, M. A. S. (1984). A tropical cyclone data tape for the North Atlantic Basin, 1886–1983: Contents, limitations, and uses. NOAA Tech. Memo. NWS NHC 22, Coral Gables
and what are the risks to output going forward and service levels. DH enquired about Met Office capability during this time especially if there is a severe weather event(s). 6. Met Office update DR informed the group that the Met Office transition to remote working had gone smoothly. It has been going
the cooling water no longer sinks and so it is possible to freeze the surface layer(s) of a freshwater lake or pond almost uniformly as a nice flat stable layer of ice (which floats because it is less dense than the water below). Freezing temperature versus temperature of maximum density for saline water
: Richardson, K., Doherty, A., Osborne, R., Mayhew, L., Lewis, K., Jobbins, G., Fox, C., Griffith, H. and El Taraboulsi-McCarthy, S. (2021) Climate Risk Report for the Middle East and North Africa region: Supplementary Document: Appendices, Met Office, ODI, FCDO. age 0 of 22 Appendix A: Methods
Experiments 4.3.2.1 Model validation 7 Before using RCM models to investigate the future climate scenario, it is necessary to evaluate how well models represent the present climate. There are different options to validate the appropriateness of a model (s) to simulate local climate. In this research two
and predicted for 2023 relative to the preceding year, vs. the Niño3.4 index for April of the preceding year to March of the current year. The Niño3.4 index is the sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly in region 5°N to 5°S and 170°W to 120°W in the Pacific Ocean, de-trended to remove the effect
Ocean (Figure 3). Figure 3. Annual CO2 growth rate for years 1960 to 2023 and predicted for 2024 relative to the preceding year, vs. the Niño3.4 index for April of the preceding year to March of the current year. The Niño3.4 index is the sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly in region 5°N to 5°S
in inland Devon. On 8/9 January 1982 conditions were especially severe in the Bristol area where dri s were locally 1 m deep. Another event, this time from convective showers, on 12 January 1987 produced snow depths of 35 cm (Falmouth), 39 cm (Penzance) and even 23 cm on the Scillies. Also, persistent
Gentle breeze Large wavelets. Crests begin to break. Foam of glassy appearance. Perhaps scattered white horses 9 4.3 7 to 10 3.4 to 5.4 Light S mooth 0.6 (1.0) 4 Moderate breeze Small waves, becoming longer, fairly frequent white horses 13 6.7 11 to 16 5.5 to 7.9 Moderate Slight 1.0 (1.5) 5 Fresh
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