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down the east coast causing severe flooding across many low-lying areas of East Anglia and the Thames Estuary. It was a cold day generally with temperatures well below the late January average. Significant weather event The Stranraer to Larne ferry boat ‘Princess Victoria’ foundered with the loss

in Wales and the south, although again most of any lying snow will be over hills.” Showers in the south will often be accompanied by strong winds, while there is a risk of overnight ice across the north and west especially tonight and Tuesday nights. It could turn more generally wet again later in the week

Lying at 0900 UTC 01 0.0 8.4 - - 02 0.0 6.6 - - 03 0.0 6.9 - - 04 0.0 9.0 - - 05 0.0 6.3 - - 06 0.0 9.2 - - 07 0.0 9.0 - - 08 tr 7.1 - - 09 tr 4.5 - - 10 0.0 4.4 - - 11 3.4 7.5 - - 12 2.8 11.1 - - 13 2.4 9.6 - - 14 1.4 8.4 - - 15 12.6 1 10.0 - - 16 tr 12.6 - - 17 0.0 8.5 - - 18 0.0 6.9 - - 19 1.4 4.6

Warnings to be issued. This changeable theme is fairly typical for UK winters and looks set to continue beyond mid week with the jet stream lying across the UK. This will bring further spells of wet and windy weather followed by sunshine and showers and temperatures will vary with spells of cold air

precipitation falls as snow and how much as hail. In turn, this could affect other variables (e.g. the amount of lying snow which leads to colder winter temperatures). We find that fixing the error can lead to differences that are significant, i.e. when the differences are larger than the spread (i.e

extent lies towards the top end of all these central ranges (Figure 5), a fact likely to reflect the abrupt slowing of ice melt late in the season. However, the median estimate did increase somewhat as the season progressed, becoming closer to the observed extent. Figure 5: Arctic sea ice extent

-term Average (1981-2010) Monthly Rainfall Total (mm) 0900-0900 78.7 105.0 63.0 Total Days of Rain > 5mm 7 8 4 Monthly Snowfall Total (cm) 0.0 not available not available Total Days of Snow 0 1 0 Total Days with Snow Lying at 0900 0 0 0 Maximum Snow Depth (cm) at 0900 0.0 not available not available

models there are improvements to the treatment of lying snow, sub-grid turbulence and ice cloud fraction in mixed-phase clouds. The main goal of PS43 is to introduce the new En-4DEnVar scheme to the global ensemble. En-4DEnVar provides an ensemble of initial conditions which are generated through

, but obviously dusk to dawn. (5) Higher values are possible in extreme situations. (6) Both instantaneous and integrated over previous hour output. (7) Over the preceding hour/three/six hours. (8) This is the falling snow amount in mm of liquid equivalent. Doesn’t reflect snow lying on the ground. Falling

week Low pressure is likely to lie in the vicinity of the UK into next week, bringing a mixture of showers, longer spells of rain, and some drier interludes. We are carefully monitoring the period of Tuesday to Thursday for the chance that an area of heavier rain moves up from the south