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Fire probability forecasting - WCSSP case study

occur in South America due to wildfires.  “We found that burned area and fire emissions are projected to increase in the future due to hotter and drier conditions, leading to a reduction in carbon storage.” Chantelle Burton, Senior Scientist at the Met Office. In a scenario where the world continues

News

Future weather extremes likely to break new records

weather events. We know that on average the UK is projected to become hotter and drier in summer, and warmer and wetter in winter – this tells us a lot, but for those assessing climate change risk it’s important to better understand how extreme weather events are likely to change too”. The updated

east_africa_risk_report

a key challenge in East Africa and will likely become more difficult as rainfall variability increases. • The impacts of climate change on freshwater availability will likely be modest compared with demand-side pressures. Localised ‘hot spots’ of over-exploitation are likely to grow in number

PowerPoint Presentation

under all emission pathways. The UKCP headlines for the UK, are consistent with these results for Exeter. *Hot spells = a maximum daytime temperature exceeding 30 °C for two or more consecutive days. Compared to a 1981-2000 baseline, the average change in: UKCP Headline Results for Exeter, UK 2030

PowerPoint Presentation

under all emission pathways. The UKCP headlines for the UK, are consistent with these results for Belfast. Compared to a 1981-2000 baseline, the average change in: UKCP Headline Results for Belfast, UK 2030 (2020-2039) *Hot spells = a maximum daytime temperature exceeding 30 °C for two or more

News

Warning issued ahead of thundery shift

advice check out the NHS advice on how to cope in hot weather.    Further ahead  Although the details of the forecast are still being determined, the risk of heavy, thundery showers is likely to continue early next week; with the most frequent showers more likely in the northeast of the UK.

PowerPoint Presentation

under all emission pathways. The UKCP headlines for the UK, are consistent with these results for Glasgow. Compared to a 1981-2000 baseline, the average change in: UKCP Headline Results for Glasgow, UK 2030 (2020-2039) *Hot spells = a maximum daytime temperature exceeding 30 °C for two or more

severewxcx_scienceinfo_forweb.pdf

(February 2020) showed that the extreme rainfall experienced is about three times more likely due to climate change. Such wet events are expected to increase by 2100 (Davies et al 2021). The latest UK Climate Projections (UKCP18) shows an increased chance of warmer, wetter winters and hotter, drier

PowerPoint Presentation

to rise under all emission pathways. The UKCP headlines for the UK, are consistent with these results for City of London. Compared to a 1981-2000 baseline, the average change in: UKCP Headline Results for City of London, UK 2030 (2020-2039) *Hot spells = a maximum daytime temperature exceeding 30 °C

What’s happened to summer so far?

.  Things can change quickly when it comes to summer rainfall, with short heavy bursts quickly pepping up totals and a few very hot days can bring average temperatures up quickly.   Looking back at previous statistics from this time period (1 June to 15 July) in a daily series from 1960, the lowest

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