Aviation Forecast Performance
Information on the performance of UK Civil Aviation weather forecasts.
CAA Verification Reports
The CAA Verification Reports listed below are provided monthly and regularly reviewed by the CAA.
- The accuracy of Aerodrome Forecasts (TAFs)
- The timeliness of short term landing forecasts (TRENDS)
- The Global Model performance and the timeliness of global significant weather bulletins
- Low Visibility Procedures (LVP) verification
Click on the year to access the reports:
- January 2019
- February 2019
- March 2019
- April 2019
- May 2019
- June 2019
- July 2019
- August 2019
- September 2019
- October 2019
- November 2019
- December 2019
- January 2018
- February 2018
- March 2018
- April 2018
- May 2018
- June 2018
- July 2018
- August 2018
- September 2018
- October 2018
- November 2018
- December 2018
Part of the role of our meteorologist team based at the NATS en-route centre at Swanwick is to ensure Air Traffic Service (ATS) units are able to proactively manage airport capacity effectively through accurate advance forecasts of low visibility and cloud base.
The Met Office provide risk based forecasts of potential Low Visibility Procedures (LVPs) at a number of airports.
Read the LVP Verification Report which summaries the frequency of LVP occurrence against forecast risk levels for six airports. These are based on forecasts issued to NATS 12 hours ahead for the following day and early in the morning of the current day.
This report will be updated by 30 June each year.
Interpreting the report
Below is an example of LVP risk verification in the report.
- The shaded part of the graph identifies the area where the forecast LVP risk levels match the expected frequency of events.
- The line shows the probability risks given in our forecasts against the observed frequency of LVPs. When this line sits within the shaded area it is highlighted in green in the accompanying table.
- When the frequency of LVP events is above or below this shaded area this represents overall under-forecasting and over-forecasting respectively.