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Aviation Forecast Performance

CAA Verification Reports

The CAA Verification Reports listed below are provided monthly and regularly reviewed by the CAA.

They measure:

  • The accuracy of Aerodrome Forecasts (TAFs)
  • The timeliness of short term landing forecasts (TRENDS)
  • The Global Model performance and the timeliness of global significant weather bulletins
  • Low Visibility Procedures (LVP) verification

Click on the year to access the reports:

2019

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2018

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NATS LVP Matrix

Part of the role of our meteorologist team based at the NATS en-route centre at Swanwick is to ensure Air Traffic Service (ATS) units are able to proactively manage airport capacity effectively through accurate advance forecasts of low visibility and cloud base.

The Met Office provide risk based forecasts of potential Low Visibility Procedures (LVPs) at a number of airports.
Read the LVP Verification Report which summaries the frequency of LVP occurrence against forecast risk levels for six airports. These are based on forecasts issued to NATS 12 hours ahead for the following day and early in the morning of the current day.

This report will be updated by 30 June each year.

Interpreting the report

Below is an example of LVP risk verification in the report.

  • The shaded part of the graph identifies the area where the forecast LVP risk levels match the expected frequency of events. 
  • The line shows the probability risks given in our forecasts against the observed frequency of LVPs. When this line sits within the shaded area it is highlighted in green in the accompanying table.
  • When the frequency of LVP events is above or below this shaded area this represents overall under-forecasting and over-forecasting respectively.

Example of LVP verification chart and graph

 

 

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