Met office daily weather: Rainy and warm

The weather pattern is dominated by a series of frontal systems, resulting in changeable conditions, particularly in the north and west.

Monday will be rather cloudy and windy for most areas with outbreaks of rain, some of which will be persistent and heavy especially over western hills. However, sheltered eastern areas can expect longer drier interludes and occasional brighter spells. Temperatures will be widely mild, with maximum temperatures generally between 12 and 15°C and locally reaching 16 or even 17°C in the lee of high ground, particularly across northern, northeastern, and eastern Scotland. There is a risk of local gales, especially in exposed northern and western locations.

Monday night will remain very mild, cloudy and windy for much of the country. Further rain is likely, particularly across Wales, northern England and southern Scotland. Northern Ireland and northern and western Scotland will see clearer spells and blustery showers. A yellow warning for rain has been issued for parts of Cumbria from midnight until 11:00 am on Tuesday, with the potential for 30–60 mm of rain and up to 80 mm in some areas. This follows an already wet period, increasing the risk of flooding and transport disruption. Overnight temperatures will remain high, with some places in England and Wales not falling below 14°C.

Outlook for Tuesday

Tuesday will continue unsettled, with rather cloudy and windy conditions persisting. The southwest will see the strongest winds, with coastal gales likely later in the day. Outbreaks of rain will become more widespread, persistent and heavy at times, particularly across southern and southwestern England and Wales during the afternoon. Scotland and Northern Ireland may see brighter intervals, but also some showers, especially in the north and northwest. Temperatures will remain mild, with highs widely between 12 and 14°C and locally 15 or 16°C in the south and southeast.

Tuesday night will be mostly cloudy and very mild, with further outbreaks of rain which will be heavy at times in the evening before becoming lighter and patchier later. Western coasts and hills will be murky, while northern Scotland will see clearer spells with showers. Minimum temperatures will be similar to or just below those of Monday night.

Met Office Meteorologist, Jonathan Vautrey, said: “The weather isn't providing the most cheerful of starts to the new week. It's quite dull and damp out there. All courtesy of an area of low pressure that is pushing close by to the UK, driving weather fronts eastwards across the nation at the moment.

“We've got some quite strong winds across many areas, and there will be gales in exposed coastal and mountain regions today. But those winds are coming in from a south-westerly direction and so they're filtering in some quite mild air and you'll certainly notice it when you step out. Despite the mild theme though, we're also going to be greeted by a lot of clouds and outbreaks of rain spreading eastwards. They'll be most persistent for western regions and could turn quite heavy at times, particularly if you're traveling over any higher ground routes around the Cumbrian fells and the Pennines.

“The further east you do get, you could see some drier conditions overall and maybe even a touch of sunshine at times for southeast England and northeast Scotland. Those temperatures by the afternoon though climbing towards 15-16°C. So even despite all that cloud, the rain, the strong winds, it is still going to be a very mild day. Those values are notably up on what we'd normally expect for the start of November.

“It remains unsettled into this evening and overnight. The rain generally setting itself up in a southwest to northeastern line. Again, there could still be some heavy pulses of rain around at times. Some slightly clearer spells just to the north and south of that staying a little drier here, but it's still going to be blustery across the board. And with those winds coming in from a southerly direction, still very mild, particularly for England and Wales, where we'll only drop down to around 12-13°C overnight. Just a little fresher for Scotland, parts of Northern Ireland where we do see some clearer skies during the second half of the night.

“There is some uncertainty just in regards to exactly where this rain will be placed on Tuesday, but at the moment at least, southwest England, parts of southern Wales could see quite a lot of rainfall during the day and there may be some localized flooding.

“So, it's worth staying up to date with the forecast. That rain will eventually spread into parts of Northern England later on. Once again, it's southeastern England, parts of Northern Scotland, and maybe even parts of Northern Ireland where we could hold on to the generally drier conditions and also see those glimmers of brightness, the sunshine poking through at times. The winds will be moderating throughout the day, so they won't be quite as strong as what we are going to be seeing today, but still certainly will be a very breezy and blustery one for most. Temperatures again peaking at around 14-16°C.”

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