Met office daily weather: Rain warnings and blustery winds

The start of November continues the theme of unsettled and mild conditions across the UK. A succession of weather fronts is bringing periods of rain, strong winds, and above-average temperatures.

With persistent and at times heavy rain falling on top on Monday’s rainfall, a yellow warning for rain has been issued for parts of Cumbria from midnight until 11:00 am on Tuesday, with the potential for 30–60 mm of rain and up to 80 mm in some areas. This follows an already wet period, increasing the risk of flooding and transport disruption.

Tuesday will be rather cloudy and windy for many areas, with the strongest winds expected across the southwest later in the day, where coastal gales are likely. Outbreaks of rain will become more widespread and persistent, turning heavy at times across southern and southwestern England and Wales during the afternoon.

A yellow warning for rainfall has also been issued for South Wales and South West England from 12:00 on Tuesday until 06:00 on Wednesday. Following recent bouts of wet weather, rain is expected to turn more extensive and heavy at times during Tuesday afternoon. Widespread totals of 20 to 30 mm are anticipated, with some exposed south-facing hills of the Brecon Beacons and Dartmoor likely to see in excess of 50 mm.

Scotland and Northern Ireland may see brighter intervals, but also some showers, particularly in the north and northwest. Temperatures will remain mild, with highs widely between 12-14°C, locally reaching 15 or 16°C in the south and southeast.

Tuesday night will be mostly cloudy and very mild, with further outbreaks of rain which will be heavy at times during the evening before becoming lighter and patchier later. Western coasts and hills will be murky, while northern Scotland will see clearer spells with showers. Minimum temperatures will be similar to or just below those of Monday night, remaining in double figures for most.

Looking ahead to Wednesday

Clearer conditions are expected across the far north during the first part of Wednesday. Elsewhere, it will be largely cloudy with outbreaks of rain, though parts of the east and southeast, as well as the far north, may remain mostly dry until late in the day. Rain could be heavy early on in the west and southwest, especially over hills, but is likely to ease as the day progresses. Western areas will remain breezy.

Temperatures will be very mild overnight through midweek, with minimum values generally between 10 and 14°C. The far north will see lower temperatures, nearer the seasonal average.

Wednesday is likely to be the warmest day of the week, with maximum temperatures around 18°C in parts of eastern England and very locally in sheltered spots such as north Wales. Temperatures will return to nearer average later in the week and into the weekend, though conditions will still be on the mild side.

Met Office Presenter and Meteorologist, Alex Deakin, said: “Across northern Scotland we should have some bright weather on Tuesday morning, even some sunny spells. But a bit soggy particularly for Cumbria, heavy rain here through the morning. It could cause some issues, a lot of surface water and spray, and southern Scotland also seeing some heavy pulses of rain. And then Wales and Southwest England see another push of heavy rain coming in through the day and that could also cause a few issues across parts of southeast Wales and parts of Devon and Cornwall too. We have Met Office yellow warnings in place.

“There'll be a bit of that rain getting to eastern England, but again, much of East Anglia and the southeast staying dry and largely dry conditions for a good part of Scotland and Northern Ireland, although a few showers still likely in the far northwest with some brightness in Northern Scotland. 15°C is possible here and further south with a bit of brightness could see highs of 15-16°C too. And even where it's soggy in the southwest, temperatures still likely to be up to 14-15°C.

“It’ll be murky around the coast with that wind strengthening here once more getting quite blustery through the evening. Further pulses of rain, a continued risk of some disruption from that wet weather as we go through into Wednesday morning. Elsewhere further north, generally staying largely dry with clearer skies across northern Scotland turning a bit colder here for first thing on Wednesday morning. It’ll more widely drop down to single digits, but overall still a very mild night further south with temperatures starting off at 11-12°C.

“Wednesday will be another cloudy day for England and Wales. A greater chance of some rain across these central and eastern parts perhaps and again further pulses of heavy rain threatening Wales and southwest England moving up into parts of Northern Ireland and southern Scotland. But much of northern Scotland generally dry and fine on Wednesday. And the winds a touch lighter here, although still quite blustery in the southwest. Still wafting up mild air, so again any brightness will see temperatures getting up into the high teens potentially and even where it's cloudy and wet, temperatures above average for the time of year.”

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