A spell of heavy and persistent rain and a short-lived spell of strong winds may lead to some disruption. Yellow National Severe Weather Warnings for rain and wind have been issued for Wales and parts of England this weekend.

A new low pressure system is moving in from the southwest today with an area of heavy rain and potential for a short spell of strong winds, both of which will clear eastward by Sunday morning as the weather becomes more showery but fairly cool. Yellow National Severe Weather Warnings have been issued for Wales and a large part of England.

Met Office Chief Meteorologist, Matthew Lehnert, said: “Through this period, 20-30 mm of rain is expected to fall widely across Wales and northern England, with some locations perhaps seeing 60-80 mm. Where these higher rainfall amounts fall remains uncertain and it is possible that this warning may be updated if confidence increases, particularly if the heaviest rain falls in urban areas.

“There is also a chance that a short spell of strong, gusty winds could develop as the area of low pressure moves east. Winds will initially strengthen across some western and southwestern areas, before migrating north-eastwards, clearing into the North Sea during the early hours of Sunday morning. Whilst not everywhere in the warning area is expected to experience very strong winds, some inland locations may see gusts of 50-60 mph whilst gusts of 65-75 mph are possible around some coasts.

"The strongest winds are likely to be along the Bristol Channel and the west Wales coast this afternoon and early evening, then along the North Sea coast of east and northeast England overnight into early Sunday morning.”

As the low-pressure system pulls away towards Scandinavia on Sunday a cooler air mass will spill in from the north, replacing the recent warmth and there is a chance of snow over the very highest mountain peaks by the end of the weekend.

Looking further ahead

High-pressure is expected to build, bringing a spell of more settled weather. Most places are expected to become dry, although the far north of Scotland is likely to see further cloud and rain on Monday, and showers could be quite persistent for south-east Kent in particular until mid-week. Temperatures initially are forecast to be below the average for the time of year, with air frosts possible in some prone rural locations, and some early morning mist or even fog patches are likely, although these should clear quickly post-dawn. A gradual recovery in temperatures through the week is likely, and towards the end of next week we will be looking to the west for the next round of cloud and rain which will begin to threaten our shores.

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