UKCP science into services

This page shows examples of how UK Climate Projections (UKCK18) products have been used since 2018.

Case studies

UK Climate Projections (UKCP18) webinars (YouTube playlist) 

Our UK Climate Projections webinar series, that began in 2023, showcases how UKCP18 data is being used to identify risks and help the UK adapt to climate change.

Bristol City Council Factsheets (PDF - 657kB)

In collaboration with Bristol City Council, the Met Office produced factsheets in 2020 to provide an overview of Bristol’s past and future climate that could build a foundation of collective understanding within the council. They were then used to engage with a range of stakeholders to inform conversations and decision-making around planning and resilience/climate strategies. Find out how the project expanded to other towns and cities across the UK. 

Climate Change Impacts on Peak Flows (PDF - 701kB)

Climate allowances are available to Local planners and flood management authorities to support them in understanding the potential impacts of climate change when managing flood risk. The impacts of the latest update to the UK Climate Projections on this guidance was investigated by UKCEH.

The Climate Matching Tool (PDF - 617kB)

Forestry practitioners need to understand appropriate seed origins to enable the planting of species that are likely to be tolerant of future climate conditions. Forestry Research developed a tool using the latest UK Climate Projections to aid this process.

Waves within UKCP Marine (PDF - 446kB)

The UKCP18 Marine Report also includes information on how waves may change in the future. In collaboration with the Met Office, the National Oceangraphy Centre delivered data on future changes in waves to government stakeholders.

Demonstration projects

The demonstration projects were developed prior to the release of the latest UK Climate Projections. They were led by sector specialists and written for their sector. The summaries below describe how existing methods/risk assessments can still be used and where new methods need to be developed to exploit the opportunities that the new dataset brings. The sectors include the management of water resources, flood risk, coastal erosion risk, forestry as well as buildings design.

Assessing climate change risk in Yorkshire (PDF - 335kB )

Piloting new climate change projections with regional stakeholders in Yorkshire catchments. University of Leeds and Yorkshire Integrated Catchment Solutions Programme (iCASP). 

Coastal cliff recession under climate change (PDF - 516kB)

How UKCP18 sea level rise data can be used to better understand increase in shoreline erosion (WSP).

Future surface water flood hazard risk (PDF - 227kB)

Using high-resolution sub-daily climate projections at the national scale. Scottish Environment Protection Agency (SEPA).

Thermal performance of buildings (PDF - 573kB)

Providing future weather files to building professionals to assess thermal comfort and energy performance. University of Exeter and the Chartered Institution of Building Service Engineers (CIBSE).

Forests for the future (PDF - 825kB)

Creating future tree growth and species suitability maps for foresters. Forest Research.

Water resources and drought planning (PDF - 1.3MB )

Future water resources and a bottom-up approach (HR Wallingford).

Applied Products

Many users and decision makers want to know about the climate impacts related to these projections, such as future flood risk or heat stress. 

The UKCP18 project team worked with potential users to understand what information and products were of most use, and provided the following documents to develop their own research requirements or in discussion with their wider networks. 

User needs for applied products from UKCP18

An overview of the user requirements for applied products, (previously known as derived products), the principles to prioritise the development of derived products and suggests ways in which some of these products could be developed.

UKCP18 - Climate impacts narratives

Summary narratives developed with subject experts and set out what climate impacts information is needed to enable adaptation, and how this may be derived from UKCP18. They cover air quality, coastal erosion, drought, flood risk, health and temperature, landslides, river erosion and bed scour, rivers flows and levels as well as soil moisture deficit.

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