Assessing the impact of strong wind gusts using forecast probabilities from an ensemble prediction system

Impacts of climate variability

Predictions and climate model output often refer to large-scale phenomena (e.g. ENSO, NAO) or give information on large-area averages. The variables for which predictions are made are most often meteorological (e.g. temperature, rainfall).

Users' needs are typically related to their economic or social activities which translate into specific, non-meteorological variables (e.g. flow into dams, energy demand, number of tropical storms in an ocean basin, extent of extreme winds).

Our work involves developing methods to tailor the model output to match the needs of users.

Key aims

  • To develop user-relevant services from forecasts and climate research

  • To increase the value of the seasonal forecasts

  • To improve our knowledge of the needs of user communities

  • To understand climate variability and predictability in the context of user needs

Current activities

  • Research into seasonal prediction applications

  • Seasonal tropical storm predictions and understanding drivers of landfall

  • Briefings to the energy, transport and water management industries

  • Developing storm footprints for the insurance industry

  • Research into the impacts of climate variability on energy supply and demand

  • Understanding predictability on seasonal to decadal time scales

  • Understanding of extremes of the current climate