East African rainfall

East Africa refers to the region 5°N to 15°S and east of 30°E, mainly incorporating the countries Uganda, Kenya, Tanzania, Malawi and parts of Zambia and Mozambique. Rainfall occurs in two wet seasons - in March to May and October to December. Our forecast is for the latter period. Forecasts of the most likely of five rainfall categories (very wet, wet, average, dry or very dry) are produced using a combination of dynamical forecast models and statistical predictions. Each of these categories has occurred in one-fifth of past years.


  • Long-range forecasts are unlike weather forecasts for the next few days
  • Forecasts show the likelihood of a range of possible outcomes
  • The most likely outcome in the forecast will not always happen
  • Forecasts are for average conditions over a wide region and time period
  • For more details on interpretation, see How to use our long-range predictions


East Africa forecast 2020

Issued October 2020