Monthly to decadal operational systems
Development of forecasting capabilities on monthly and seasonal timescales
The main prediction system currently used for seasonal timescales is the Met Office Global Seasonal Forecast System: GloSea5. It is an ensemble prediction system using a coupled atmosphere--land--ocean--sea-ice model (a variant of the Met Office climate prediction model: HadGEM3 family), to generate probabilistic forecasts up to six months ahead. GloSea5 forecasts include uncertainties due to initial conditions and model formulation.
In a major change from the previous seasonal forecasting system, GloSea5 is fully integrated in the model-development cycle. This is expected to lead to faster improvements in forecasting skill for regional, seasonal scales.
- To develop an operational forecasting system.
- To contribute to model development.
- To generate products required by World Meteorological Organization, from its global producing centres of long-range forecasts (of which the Met Office is one).
- Model initialisation, including ocean data assimilation
- Calibration of model output and verification