Monthly to decadal operational systems

The main prediction system currently used for seasonal timescales is the Met Office Global Seasonal Forecast System: GloSea5. It is an ensemble prediction system using a coupled atmosphere--land--ocean--sea-ice model (a variant of the Met Office climate prediction model: HadGEM3 family), to generate probabilistic forecasts up to six months ahead. GloSea5 forecasts include uncertainties due to initial conditions and model formulation.

In a major change from the previous seasonal forecasting system, GloSea5 is fully integrated in the model-development cycle. This is expected to lead to faster improvements in forecasting skill for regional, seasonal scales.

The output from the system is used to generate monthly and seasonal forecast products as well as provide data for research activities described in Impacts of Climate Variability.

Key aims

  • To develop an operational forecasting system.
  • To contribute to model development.
  • To generate products required by World Meteorological Organization, from its global producing centres of long-range forecasts (of which the Met Office is one).

Current research

  • Model initialisation, including ocean data assimilation
  • Calibration of model output and verification