The probability of windspeed > 22 knots, derived from an ensemble forecast

Predictability research

Over the next decade, changes in climate are expected to be due to a combination of anthropogenic changes in atmospheric greenhouse-gas and aerosol concentrations; natural variations in volcanic and solar activity, and natural, unforced internal variability. To predict regional changes on these timescales it is important to include all of these effects.

The decadal predictions system, Met Office decadal prediction system: DePreSys, achieves this by starting predictions from observed atmospheric and oceanic conditions, and including projected emissions of greenhouse gases and variations in natural climate forcings (volcanic and solar activity).

Retrospective decadal predictions with DePreSys show improvements over uninitialized forecasts.

Key aims

  • To improve understanding of mechanisms of decadal variability.
  • To improve predictive capability on decadal timescales.
  • To provide operational decadal prediction products.