Seasonal prediction

The main prediction system currently used for seasonal timescales is Met Office seasonal prediction system: GloSea6. It is an ensemble prediction system using a coupled ocean-atmosphere model (variant of Met Office climate prediction model: HadGEM3 family), to generate probabilistic forecasts up to six months ahead. GloSea6 includes uncertainties due to initial conditions and model formulation.

GloSea6 is fully integrated in the model-development cycle and is expected to lead to faster improvements in forecasting skill for regional, seasonal scales.

The output from the system is used to generate Monthly to decadal applications.

Key aims

  • To develop an operational forecasting system.

  • To contribute to model development.

  • To generate products required by World Meteorological Organization, from its global producing centres of long-range forecasts (of which the Met Office is one).

Current research

  • Model initialisation, including ocean data assimilation

  • Representation of model uncertainties

  • Calibration of model output and verification