Prof. Adam Scaife
Adam leads our monthly to decadal prediction work while carrying out personal research on climate variability.
Adam is head of Monthly to Decadal Prediction which includes the research, production and issuing of our climate predictions from months to a few years ahead. These ensemble climate predictions and the research behind them helps contingency planners in the UK and abroad to deal with impending climate variability and change.
Adam's personal research is focused on climate variability and computer modelling of the climate. He has published more than 100 peer reviewed articles on mechanisms of climate variability and predictability and their simulation in physically based computer models. His research group recently made an important breakthrough in seasonal forecasting for winter.
Adam has led the Monthly to Decadal Prediction Group since 2008 after spending five years leading a smaller team of scientists investigating climate variability. Adam has over 20 years experience in climate modelling and climate prediction. His recent studies help to clarify what caused changes in European climate from cold blocked winters in the 1960s to the mild wet winters of the 1990s, as well as year-to-year effects from El Niño, the stratosphere and other sources of predictability.
Adam successfully simulated the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation using parameterised gravity waves for the first time in our climate model and his work has reduced some of the major errors in climate model simulations of the atmosphere - for example in reducing the errors in atmospheric 'blocking'. He also demonstrated with colleagues that the Brewer-Dobson circulation and the associated mass transfer across the tropopause is expected to increase under climate change. Adam has played a leading role in international projects and scientific steering groups and his key contributions have been recognised by a number of external awards.
Co-chair : WCRP Grand Challenge on Near Term Climate Prediction 2015-ongoing.
American Geophysical Union’s ASCENT Award 2016.
Co-chair WCRP Working Group on Seasonal to Interannual Prediction 2008-2015.
Royal Meteorological Society’s Adrian Gill Award 2014.
L.G. Groves Award for Meteorology 2013.
WCRP SPARC scientific steering group 2011-2015.
Lloyd's Science of Risk Prize for Climate Change Research 2011
IAMAS International Commission on Dynamical Meteorology 2005-2013.