An external view of the Met Office building at night.

Robert Neal

Areas of expertise

  • Post-processing of ensemble forecasts
  • Communication of probabilistic forecasts
  • Weather pattern forecast applications

Publications by Robert Neal

Current activities

Robert works in the Verification, Impacts and Post-Processing team, post-processing data from numerical models covering a range of forecast lead times. Current projects include:

  • Development and maintenance of a probabilistic medium- to long-range forecasting tool called Decider, which is based on a set of 30 objectively derived European weather patterns. Research is focusing on how these weather pattern forecasts can be applied to specific high impact applications in the UK, such as coastal flooding, fluvial flooding and meteorological droughts. Robert is also involved with the LANDSLIP research consortium, where he is developing predefined weather patterns over India.
  • Development and maintenance of a probabilistic first-guess early warning tool for severe weather to support the impact based National Severe Weather Warning Service (NSWWS). This tool presents ensemble information in a user-friendly format which mimics the NSWWS colour states, taking account of the expected impact of weather as well as likelihood.
  • Routine maintenance and upgrades to Met Office ensemble post-processing systems, including testing model upgrades during parallel suites.

Career background

Robert completed a BSc in Geography and an MSc in Applied Meteorology and Climatology at the University of Birmingham, before joining the Met Office in 2008.