Observed and forecast tracks: northern hemisphere 2019

Click on the name of the tropical cyclone to see a chart of the observed track and forecast tracks from the Met Office global model. Verification statistics on each tropical cyclone are available upon request from [email protected]. At the end of the season a verification report on the performance of the Met Office global model will be published.

North-west Pacific
Name & ID Start & end dates Central pressure, 1-/10-minute MSW Comments on Met Office global model forecasts

Pabuk (36W)

31 December-06 January 994 mb, 50/45 knots

Track forecast errors were a little above last season's average due to a right-of-track bias close to landfall.

01W

04-06 January

1003 mb, 25/- knots

No forecasts were verified for this depression.

Wutip (02W)

19-28 February 915 mb, 140/105 knots

Despite a few early forecasts having a large northwards bias, track errors were below last season's average at most lead times from 72 hours onwards.

03W 15-18 March 1001 mb, 25/- knots

No forecasts were verified for this depression.

Sepat (-)

27-28 June 994 mb, -/40 knots

Sepat was only briefly a tropical storm and few forecasts were verified.

04W

28-30 June 1001 mb, 40/30 knots

04W only briefly attained tropical storm status as defined by JTWC, but not JMA.

Mun (05W)

02-04 July 992 mb, 35/35 knots

Mun only briefly attained tropical storm status and no forecasts were verified.

Danas (06W)

16-21 July 985 mb, 45/45 knots

There was a slow bias in forecasts for Danas resulting in track forecast errors above last season's average.

Nari (07W)

25-27 July 998 mb,35/35 knots

Nari was fairly short-lived as a tropical storm with track errors near to last season's average.

Wipha (08W)

30 July-03 August 985 mb, 40/45 knots

Track forecast errors were below last season's average.

Francisco (09W)

01-07 August 970 mb, 75/70 knots

There was a slight left-of-track bias at longer lead times with errors generally near to or slightly above last season's average.

Lekima (10W)

04-12 August 920 mb, 130/95 knots

There was a left-of-track bias resulting in track forecast errors at some lead times being above last season's avalues.

Krosa (11W)

05-16 August 950 mb, 100/85 knots

Track forecast errors were mostly below last season's average, although there was a right-of-track bias at longer lead times.

Bailu (12W)

21-25 August 985 mb, 55/50 knots

Track forecast errors were low and skill scores high for this storm.

Podul (13W)

26-30 August 993 mb, 35/45 knots

Track forecast errors were above last season's average.

Faxai (14W)

01-10 September 955 mb, 115/85 knots

Track forecast errors were mixed, but there was a slight fast bias in forecasts.

Lingling (15W)

02-07 September 940 mb, 120/90 knots

Track forecast errors compared to previous seasons were mixed for this typhoon.

Kajiki (16W)

02-03 September 996 mb, 30/35 knots

Kajiki only briefly reached tropical storm strength.

Peipah (17W)

14-16 September 999 mb, 35/35 knots

Peipah only briefly reached tropical storm strength.

Tapah (18W)

18-22 September 970 mb, 60/65 knots

Track forecast errors were near last season's average.

Mitag (19W)

27 September-03 October 965 mb, 90/75 knots

Track forecast errors were mixed, with a slight fast bias at long lead times. Skill scores against CLIPER were high.

Hagibis (20W)

05-13 October 915 mb, 140/105 knots

There was a slow and left-of-track bias resulting in track forecast errors above last seasons average. However, the landfall location was well predicted up to 84 hours before it occurred.

Neoguri (21W)

16-22 October 970 mb, 95/70 knots

There was a slow bias in early forecasts resulting in large track forecast errors at longer lead times.

Bualoi (22W)

19-25 October 935 mb, 125/100 knots

Track forecast errors were near to average with a slight slow bias.

Matmo (23W)

29-31 October 992 mb, 50/50 knots

Matmo was shoert-lived with few forecasts verified. The cyclogenesis of the storm was well predicted.

Halong (24W)

02-09 November 905 mb, 155/115 knots

Track forecast errors were above last season's average at short lead times, but lower than the average at longer lead times. There was a slow bias in forecasts.

Nakri (25W)

05-10 November 975 mb, 65/65 knots

Track forecast errors were near last season's average.

Fengshen (26W)

11-17 November 965 mb, 110/85 knots

Track forecast errors were high for Fengshen. There was mostly a slow bias, except for a few long lead time forecasts which were too quick accelerating the storm into the subtropics.

Kalmaegi (27W)

12-20 November 980 mb, 80/65 knots

Track forecast errors were mixed. Initial forecasts moved Kalmaegi northwards too quickly. However, most forecasts handled the erratic movement of the storm well.

Fung-wong (28W)

19-22 November 990 mb, 60/55 knots

Fung-wong was short-lived with track forecast errors higher than last season's average.

Kammuri (29W)

25 November-05 December 950 mb, 115/85 knots

Track forecast errors were higher than the recent running mean due to a slow bias.

Phanfone (30W)

21-28 December 970 mb, 95/80 knots

Track forecast errors were lowe than the recent running mean, particularly for longer lead time forecasts.

North-west observed tracks in 2019

Tropical cyclone names

North-east Pacific
Name & ID Start & end dates Central pressure, 1-minute MSW Comments on Met Office global model forecasts

Alvin (01E)

25-29 June 992 mb, 65 knots

The first forecast for Alvin had larger than average track forecast errors, but subsequent forecasts were very good.

Barbara (02E)

30 June-08 July 933 mb, 135 knots

Forecasts for Hurricane barbara were very good with track forecast errors very low and skill scores high.

Cosme (03E)

06-08 July 1001 mb, 45 knots

Cosme was briefly a tropical storm and few forecasts were verified.

04E

12-14 July 1006 mb, 30 knots

04E was a tropical depression and no forecasts were verified.

Dalila (05E)

22-25 July 1006 mb, 35 knots

Dalila was briefly a tropical storm and only one forecast was verified.

Erick (06E)

27 July-05 August 952 mb, 115 knots

Track forecast errors were low for this hurricane

Flossie (07E)

28 July-06 August 990 mb, 70 knots

Track forecast errors were mostly lower than last season's average.

Gil (08E)

03-05 August 1006 mb, 35 knots

Gil only briefly attained tropical storm status.

Henriette (09E)

12-13 August 1005 mb, 35 knots

Henriette only briefly attained tropical storm status.

Ivo (10E)

21-25 August 993 mb, 55 knots

Track forecast errors were higher than last season's average.

Juliette (11E)

01-07 September 950 mb, 110 knots

Track forecast errors were mostly a little above last season's average with a fast bias.

Kiko (13E)

12-25 September 950 mb, 115 knots

Despite the unusual track of Kiko track forecast errors were mostly below last season's average.

Lorena (15E)

17-22 September 985 mb, 70 knots

Difficulties in predicting the interaction between Lorena and Mario resulted in some large track forecast errors. Also Lorena was not initialised or forecast as a very strong circulation resulting in premature dissipation in many forecasts.

Mario (14E)

17-23 September 992 mb, 55 knots

Difficulties in predicting the interaction between Mario and Lorena resulted in some large track forecast errors.

Narda (16E)

28 September-01 October 998 mb, 45 knots

Track forecast errors were above last season's average.

Octave (18E)

17-19 October 1005 mb, 40 knots

Octave was a short-lived storm.

Priscilla (19E)

20-21 October 1005 mb, 35 knots

Priscilla was very short-lived. No forecasts were verified.

Raymond (20E)

15-17 November 1002 mb, 45 knots

Raymond was short-lived. Track forecast errors were above last season's average.

21E

16-18 November 1006 mb, 30 knots

21E did not achieve tropical storm status.

Central North Pacific
Name & ID Start & end dates Central Pressure, 1-minute MSW Comments on Met Office global model forecasts

Akoni (12E)

04-06 September 1003 mb, 40 knots

Akoni only briefly reached tropical storm status. Despite forming as a depression in the North-East Pacific, it was named in the Central North Pacific.

Ema (01C)

12-14 October 1003 mb, 45 knots

Ema was short-lived and not well initialised. No forecasts were verified.

North-east and Central North Pacific observed tracks in 2019

Tropical cyclone names (North-east Pacific)

Tropical cyclone names (Central North Pacific)

North Atlantic
Name & ID Start & end dates Central pressure, 1-minute MSW Comments on Met Office global model forecasts

Andrea (01L)

20-21 May 1006 mb, 35 knots

Andrea was short-lived and no forecasts were verified.

Barry (02L)

11-14 July 993 mb, 65 knots

Track forecast errors for barry were below last season's average.

03L

22-23 July 1013 mb, 30 knots

03L did not reach tropical storm status.

Chantal (04L)

21-24 August 1009 mb, 35 knots

Chantal only briefly reached tropical storm status.

Dorian (05L)

24 August-07 September 910 mb, 160 knots

Early forecasts predicted a track too far to the west, but later forecasts were very good. This resulted in overall track forecast errors well below last season's average and skill scores very high. The rapid deepening prior to landfall over the Bahamas was not captured and the model tended to deepen Dorian for too long after it moved away from the Bahamas.

Erin (06L)

26-29 August 1005 mb, 35 knots

Erin only briefly reached tropical storm status.

Fernand (07L)

03-05 September 1000 mb, 45 knots

Fernand was only briefly a tropical storm.

Gabrielle (08L)

03-10 September 995 mb, 55 knots

Track errors were mixed for this storm, but gave a good indication of the recurvature.

Humberto (09L)

13-20 September 951 mb, 105 knots

Track forecasts were very good for this hurricane. Errors were below last season's average for all but the longest lead times.

Imelda (11L)

17-19 September 1005 mb, 35 knots

Despite causing considerable impacts, Imelda was only briefly a tropical storm and no forecasts were verified.

Jerry (10L)

17-25 September 976 mb, 90 knots

Track forecast errors were below last season's average at all lead times.

Karen (12L)

22-27 September 1003 mb, 40 knots

Track forecast errors were below last season's average at short lead times, but above average at long lead times.

Lorenzo (13L)

23 September-02 October 925 mb, 140 knots

There was a left-of-track bias in some forecasts. Track errors at shorter lead times were above last season's average, but below average at longer lead times.

Melissa (14L)

11-14 October 995 mb, 55 knots

Track forecast errors were near to or below last season's average for Melissa.

15L

14-16 October 1006 mb, 30 knots

15L did not reach tropical storm status.

Nestor (16L)

18-19 October 996 mb, 55 knots

Nestor was short-lived and only one forecast verified.

Olga (17L)

25-26 October 999 mb, 45 knots

Olga was very short-lived as a tropical storm.

Pablo (18L)

25-28 October 977 mb, 70 knots

Track forecast errors were above last season's average for Pablo.

Rebekah (19L)

30 October-01 November 987 mb, 40 knots

As with many other storms in October Rebekah was short-lived.

Sebastien (20L)

18-25 November 993 mb, 55 knots

Track forecast errors were larger than last season's average. The direction of motion was well predicted, but the speed of motion erratic (both fast and slow) resulting in the large errors.

North Atlantic observed tracks in 2019

Tropical cyclone names

North Indian
Name & ID Start & end dates Central pressure, 1-/10-minute MSW Comments on Met Office global model forecasts

Fani (01B)

27 April-04 May 917 mb, 135/110 knots

Early forecasts for Cyclone Fani had a left-of-track and slow bias resulting in large forecast errors. However, from four days ahead of landfall track forecast errors were much lower and the location of landfall well predicted.

Vayu (02A)

10-17 June 950 mb, 95/80 knots

The first few forecasts called for landfall over Gujarat which did not occur. Therefore longer lead time errors were large. However, later forecasts predicted the turn westwards well and track forecast errors were low.

Hikaa (03A)

22-25 September 972 mb, 85/75 knots

Track forecast errors were well below last season's average for this storm.

Kyarr (04A)

24-31 October 920 mb, 135/125 knots

Long lead time errors were high due to a failure to turn southwestwards. However, shorter lead time errors were low since this turn was well predicted.

Maha (05A)

30 October-06 November 956 mb, 105/90 knots

Track forecast errors were below average for Maha. Although forecasts moved the cyclone too far west, they all correctly predicted the sharp turn back towards the east.

Bulbul (23W)

04-10 November 971 mb, 85/80 knots

Bulbul was a regeneration of Tropical Storm Matmo which made landfall over Vietnam. Track forecast errors were low and landfall well predicted.

Pawan (06A)

03-07 December 998 mb, 40/35 knots

Track forecast errors were mixed. There was a slow bias.

07A

03-04 December 999 mb, 45/30 knots

Only one forecast was verified for this storm.

North Indian observed tracks in 2019

Tropical cyclone names

Note on estimated wind speeds

1-minute MSW: Maximum sustained wind (knots) averaged over 1 minute (JTWC Hawaii, NHC Miami, CPHC Hawaii)

10-minute MSW: Maximum sustained wind (knots) averaged over 10 minutes (JMA Japan, IMD New Delhi)
Note: Although 1-minute average winds should be stronger than 10-minute average, this may not be the case here since estimates are obtained from different warning centres.