Observed and forecast tracks: northern hemisphere 2022

Click on the name of the tropical cyclone to see a chart of the observed track and forecast tracks from the Met Office global model. Verification statistics on each tropical cyclone are available upon request from [email protected]. At the end of the season a verification report on the performance of the Met Office global model will be published.

North-west Pacific
Name & ID Start & end dates Central pressure, 1-/10-minute MSW Comments on Met Office global model forecasts

01W

30-31 March 1005 mb, 30/- knots 01W was short-lived tropical depression.
Malakas (02W) 07-15 April 950 mb, 115/85 knots Track forecast errors were lower than the recent mean for this storm. There was a slight slow bias for longer lead times.
Megi (03W) 09-12 April 998 mb, 40/35 knots Megi was short-lived as a tropical storm.
Chaba (04W) 29 June-03 July 965 mb, 75/70 knots Track forecast errors were low for this storm.
Aere (05W) 30 June-06 July 994 mb, 45/45 knots Track forecast errors were mostly a little higher than the recent mean.
Songda (06W) 28 July-01 August 996 mb, 30/35 knots No forecasts were verified as 1-minute sustained winds did not reach tropical storm status.
Trases (07W) 31 July-01 August 998 mb, 35/35 knots Trases was a short-lived storm.
08W 04 August 1002 mb, 25/- knots 08W was a brief tropical depression and no forecasts were verified.
Mulan (97W) 09-10 August 996 mb, 35/35 knots Track forecast errors were low for this brief tropical storm.
Meari (09W) 11-14 August 996 mb, 35/40 knots Forecast tracks for the storm's passage across southeastern Japan were good.
Ma-on (10W) 21-25 August 980 mb, 60/60 knots There was a right-of-track bias in forecasts resulting in errors above the recent mean value.
Tokage (11W) 22-25 August 970 mb, 95/75 knots The direction of motion forecasts were good, but the speed was too fast resulting in longer lead time errors above the recent mean values.
Hinnamnor (12W) 28 August-06 September 920 mb, 140/105 knots Beyond 48 hours track forecast errors were large mostly due to a westwards bias in tracks across Taiwan.
13W 30 August-01 September 1000 mb, 30/30 knots No forecasts were verified for this tropical depression.
Muifa (14W) 06-16 September 950 mb, 115/85 knots Track forecast errors were mostly near to or below the recent mean values.
Merbok (15W) 10-15 September 970 mb, 70/70 knots There was a slow bias in longer lead time forecasts, but short lead times track forecast errors were low.
Nanmadol (16W) 12-19 September 910 mb, 135/105 knots Track forecasts were near to the recent mean values for this typhoon.
Talas (17W) 21-24 September 1000 mb, 35/35 knots Talas was only briefly a tropical storm and no forecasts were verified.
Noru (18W) 22-28 September 940 mb, 140/95 knots Early forecasts of the Philippines landfall were poor, but errors reduced for later forecasts.
Kulap (19W) 25-29 September 970 mb, 65/60 knots Track forecast errors were near to or below the recent mean values.
Roke (20W) 28 September-02 October 975 mb, 85/70 knots The direction of motion was well predicted but the predicted forward speed was too slow.

North-west observed tracks in 2022

Tropical cyclone names

North-east Pacific
Name & ID Start & end dates Central pressure, 1-minute MSW Comments on Met Office global model forecasts

Agatha (01E)

28-31 May 964 mb, 95 knots Track forecast errors were near to the recent mean values.
Blas (02E) 14-20 June 980 mb, 75 knots Track errors were higher than the recent mean values due to a fast and left-of-track bias.
Celia (03E) 16-28 June 992 mb, 60 knots Track forecast errors were above the recent mean for short period forecasts.
Bonnie (02L/04E) 01-09 July 964 mb, 100 knots Bonnie formed in the Atlantic basin, but spent most of its life in the NE Pacific basin. Track forecast errors were low and skill scores high.
Darby (05E) 09-16 July 954 mb, 120 knots Track forecast errors were low and skill scores high for this hurricane.
Estelle (06E) 15-21 July 984 mb, 75 knots Due to a left-of-track bias, track forecast errors were a little above the recent mean values.
Frank (07E) 26 July-02 August 975 mb, 80 knots Track forecast errors were near to or slightly above the recent mean values. There was a left-of-track bias in many forecasts.
Georgette (08E) 27 July-03 August 997 mb, 50 knots Track forecast errors were mostly above the recent mean values.
Howard (09E) 06-11 August 983 mb, 75 knots Track forecast errors were low for this hurricane.
Ivette (10E) 13-16 August 1005 mb, 35 knots Ivette was only briefly a tropical storm and no forecasts were verified.
Javier (11E) 01-04 September 999 mb, 45 knots Track forecast errors were low.
Kay (12E) 04-10 September 967 mb, 90 knots Track forecast errors were larger than average due to a left-of-track bias.
Lester (13E) 15-17 September 1002 mb, 40 knots Lester was short-lived with few forecasts verified.
Madeline (14E) 17-20 September 992 mb, 55 knots Track forecast errors were near the recent mean values.
Newton (15E) 21-25 September 996 mb, 55 knots Track forecast errors were near the recent mean values. The storm was weakened too quickly.
Central North Pacific
Name & ID Start & end dates Central Pressure, 1-minute MSW Comments on Met Office global model forecasts

 

   

 

North-east and Central North Pacific observed tracks in 2022

Tropical cyclone names (North-east Pacific)

Tropical cyclone names (Central North Pacific)

North Atlantic
Name & ID Start & end dates Central pressure, 1-minute MSW Comments on Met Office global model forecasts

Alex (01L)

05-06 June 986 mb, 60 knots Alex was a short-lived storm which was well forecast.
Bonnie (02L/04E) 01-09 July 964 mb, 100 knots Bonnie formed in the Atlantic basin, but spent most of its life in the NE Pacific basin. Track forecast errors were low and skill scores high.
Colin (03L) 02-03 July 1011 mb, 35 knots Colin only briefly reached tropical storm status.
Danielle (05L) 01-08 September 972 mb, 80 knots Track forecast errors were mostly below the recent mean values and skill scores high.
Earl (06L) 03-10 September 954 mb, 90 knots Shorter lead times track errors were low, but longer lead times errors high due to a slow bias.
Fiona (07L) 14-24 September 931 mb, 115 knots Track forecast errors were below the 5-year running mean at all lead times and skill scores were high.
Gaston (08L) 20-25 September 997 mb, 55 knots Track forecast errors were low at most lead times.
Ian (09L) 23 September-01 October 937 mb, 135 knots Short lead times track forecast errors were low, but at longer lead times there was a slow and left-of-track bias. However, Florida landfall predictions were more consistent than some other models.
Hermine (10L) 23-25 September 1002 mb, 35 knots Hermine was short-lived and only one forecast was verified.
11L 28-29 September 1008 mb, 30 knots No forecasts were verified for this depression.

Note 04L was a 'potential tropical cyclone' which never attained tropical cyclone status.

North Atlantic observed tracks in 2022

Tropical cyclone names

North Indian
Name & ID Start & end dates Central pressure, 1-/3-minute MSW Comments on Met Office global model forecasts

01B

04-06 March 996 mb, 35/30 knots 01B briefly attained 35 knot 1-minute sustained winds according to JTWC.
Asani (02B) 07-11 May 976 mb, 65/60 knots Forecasts persistently predicted a northwards turn which did not happen, resulting in track forecast errors above the recent mean.
03A 12-13 August 989 mb, 35/30 knots 03A only briefly reached tropical storm status based on 1-minute average winds.
04B 18-19 August 995 mb, 45/30 knots 04B only briefly reached tropical storm status based on 1-minute average winds.

North Indian observed tracks in 2022

Tropical cyclone names

Mediterranean
Name & ID Start & end dates Central pressure, 1-/10-minute MSW Comments on Met Office global model forecasts
       

Note, there is no official warning agency for Mediterranean tropical or subtropical cyclones, so identifiers are assigned by the Met Office to facilitate tracking and forecast verification.

Mediterranean observed tracks in 2022

Note on estimated wind speeds

1-minute MSW: Maximum sustained wind (knots) averaged over 1 minute (JTWC Hawaii, NHC Miami, CPHC Hawaii)

3-minute MSW: Maximum sustained wind (knots) averaged over 3 minutes (IMD New Delhi)

10-minute MSW: Maximum sustained wind (knots) averaged over 10 minutes (JMA Japan)


Note: Although 1-minute average winds should be stronger than 3-/10-minute averages, this may not be the case here since estimates are obtained from different warning centres using different analysis techniques.