Observed and forecast tracks: northern hemisphere 2023
A summary of tropical cyclone activity in the Northern Hemisphere for the 2023 season together with an assessment of the performance of the Met Office global model in predicting the track and intensity of these tropical cyclones.
Click on the name of the tropical cyclone to see a chart of the observed track and forecast tracks from the Met Office global model. Verification statistics on each tropical cyclone are available upon request from [email protected]. At the end of the season a verification report on the performance of the Met Office global model will be published.
| Name & ID | Start & end dates | Central pressure, 1-/10-minute MSW | Comments on Met Office global model forecasts |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sanvu (01W) | 19-22 April | 998 mb, 45/45 knots | No forecasts were verified as Sanvu forecasts had a weak bias and the storm could not be tracked. |
North-west observed tracks in 2023
| Name & ID | Start & end dates | Central pressure, 1-minute MSW | Comments on Met Office global model forecasts |
|---|---|---|---|
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| Name & ID | Start & end dates | Central Pressure, 1-minute MSW | Comments on Met Office global model forecasts |
|---|---|---|---|
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North-east and Central North Pacific observed tracks in 2023
Tropical cyclone names (North-east Pacific)
Tropical cyclone names (Central North Pacific)
| Name & ID | Start & end dates | Central pressure, 1-minute MSW | Comments on Met Office global model forecasts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15-17 January | 982 mb, 55 knots | 01L was designated a subtropical storm after the event, so did not receive a name. Forecast tracks were very good. |
North Atlantic observed tracks in 2023
| Name & ID | Start & end dates | Central pressure, 1-/3-minute MSW | Comments on Met Office global model forecasts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10-15 May | 918 mb, 140/115 knots |
North Indian observed tracks in 2023
| Name & ID | Start & end dates | Central pressure, 1-/10-minute MSW | Comments on Met Office global model forecasts |
|---|---|---|---|
Note, there is no official warning agency for Mediterranean tropical or subtropical cyclones, so identifiers are assigned by the Met Office to facilitate tracking and forecast verification.
Mediterranean observed tracks in 2023
Note on estimated wind speeds
1-minute MSW: Maximum sustained wind (knots) averaged over 1 minute (JTWC Hawaii, NHC Miami, CPHC Hawaii)
3-minute MSW: Maximum sustained wind (knots) averaged over 3 minutes (IMD New Delhi)
10-minute MSW: Maximum sustained wind (knots) averaged over 10 minutes (JMA Japan)
Note: Although 1-minute average winds should be stronger than 3-/10-minute averages, this may not be the case here since estimates are obtained from different warning centres using different analysis techniques.
