Observed and forecast tracks: northern hemisphere 2023
A summary of tropical cyclone activity in the Northern Hemisphere for the 2023 season together with an assessment of the performance of the Met Office global model in predicting the track and intensity of these tropical cyclones.
Click on the name of the tropical cyclone to see a chart of the observed track and forecast tracks from the Met Office global model. Verification statistics on each tropical cyclone are available upon request from [email protected]. At the end of the season a verification report on the performance of the Met Office global model will be published.
| Name & ID | Start & end dates | Central pressure, 1-/10-minute MSW | Comments on Met Office global model forecasts |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sanvu (01W) | 19-22 April | 998 mb, 45/45 knots | No forecasts were verified as Sanvu forecasts had a weak bias and the storm could not be tracked. |
| Mawar (02W) | 20 May-03 June | 905 mb, 160/115 knots | Track forecast errors were mostly below the recent mean. Some forecasts had large errors due to a left-of-track bias. |
| Guchol (03W) | 06-12 June | 970 mb, 90/75 knots | Track forecast errors were very low for this typhoon. |
| Talim (04W) | 14-18 July | 970 mb, 70/60 knots | Track forecast errors were below the recent mean for this typhoon. |
| Doksuri (05W) | 21-28 July | 925 mb, 130/100 knots | Track forecast errors were mostly well below the recent mean values. |
| Khanun (06W) | 27 July - 10 August | 930 mb, 120/95 knots | Track forecast errors were low at short lead times, but high at longer lead times due to some forecasts predicting a China landfall instead of a reversal of direction. |
| Lan (07W) | 07-17 August | 940 mb, 115/90 knots | Track forecast errors were below the recent mean values. |
| Damrey (08W) | 23-29 August | 985 mb, 65/45 knots | Track forecast errors were low for this storm. |
| Saola (09W) | 23 August - 03 September | 920 mb, 135/105 knots | Track forecast errors were remarkably low for this typhoon despite its complex motion early in its lifetime. |
| Haikui (10W) | 28 August - 04 September | 955 mb, 105/85 knots | There was a right-of-track bias in forecasts for Haikui resulting in large track forecast errors. |
| Kirogi (11W) | 30 August - 04 September | 992 mb, 60/50 knots | Track forecast errors were a little above recent mean values. |
| Yun-yeung (12W) | 05-08 September | 996 mb, 40/45 knots | Track forecast errors were near to the recent mean. |
| 13W | 25-26 September | 1001 mb, 30/25 knots | No forecasts were verified for this depression. |
| Koinu (14W) | 29 September - 10 October | 940 mb, 120/90 knots | Early forecasts incorrectly stalled Koinu east of Taiwan. Later forecasts were better, but there was a low detection percentage at longer lead times. |
| Bolaven (15W) | 07-14 October | 900 mb, 155/115 knots | Although the direction of motion was well predicted, track forecast errors were large at longer lead times due to a slow bias. |
| Sanba (16W) | 17-21 October | 1000 mb, 40/40 knots | Sanba was relatively short-lived with track forecast errors above the recent mean values. |
| 17W | 12-13 November | 1004 mb, 25/- knots | 17W did not reach tropical storm status. |
North-west observed tracks in 2023
| Name & ID | Start & end dates | Central pressure, 1-minute MSW | Comments on Met Office global model forecasts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27 June - 02 July | 970 mb, 90 knots | Track forecast errors were above the recent mean for this hurricane. | |
| Beatriz (02E) | 29 June - 01 July | 991 mb, 75 knots | Track forecast errors were a little higher than the recent mean. |
| Calvin (03E) | 11-19 July | 955 mb, 110 knots | There was a fast bias resulting in longer lead time errors being larger than average. Short lead time errors were low. |
| 04E | 21-22 July | 1006 mb, 30 knots | No forecasts were verified for this tropical depression. |
| Dora (05E) | 31 July - 16 August | 942 mb, 125 knots | Track forecast errors were below the recent mean values at all, but the shortest lead times. |
| Eugene (06E) | 05-07 August | 992 mb, 60 knots | Eugene was short-lived with track forecast errors close to the recent mean values. |
| Fernanda (07E) | 12-17 August | 955 mb, 115 knots | Forecast tracks were too fast resulting in errors above the recent mean values. |
| Greg (08E) | 14 - 18 August | 1000 mb, 45 knots | Track forecast errors were close to or below the recent mean values. |
| Hilary (09E) | 16-21 August | 939 mb, 125 knots | Track forecasts were slow and with a left-of-track bias, resulting in large errors overall. |
| Irwin (10E) | 27-29 August | 997 mb, 35 knots | Track forecast errors were close to the recent mean values. |
| Jova (11E) | 04-10 September | 929 mb, 140 knots | There was a left-of-track bias resulting in larger than normal track forecast errors. |
| 12E | 15-17 September | 1006 mb, 30 knots | No forecasts were verified for this depression. |
| Kenneth (13E) | 19-22 September | 1000 mb, 45 knots | There was a left-of-track bias for this storm. |
| 14E | 23-25 September | 1007 mb, 30 knots | No forecasts were verified for this depression. |
| Lidia (15E) | 03-11 October | 942 mb, 120 knots | Track forecast errors were above average and particularly large at long lead times due to the failure of early forecasts to predict recurvature back towards Mexico. |
| Max (16E) | 08-10 October | 995 mb, 50 knots | Max was a short-lived tropical storm. |
| Norma (17E) | 17-23 October | 944 mb, 115 knots | Due to a left-of-track bias, track forecast errors were mostly above the recent mean values. |
| Otis (18E) | 22-26 October | 923 mb, 145 knots | Track forecast errors were large due to a slow bias and the global model failed to predict the rapid intensification prior to landfall. |
| Pilar (19E) | 28 October-06 November | 996 mb, 50 knots | Track forecasts were below the recent average at longer lead times. There was a slight slow bias. |
| Ramon (20E) | 23-26 November | 1002 mb, 40 knots | Ramon was a relatively short-lived storm. |
| Name & ID | Start & end dates | Central Pressure, 1-minute MSW | Comments on Met Office global model forecasts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31 July - 16 August | 942 mb, 125 knots |
Track forecast errors were below the recent mean values at all, but the shortest lead times. |
* Dora originated in the eastern Pacific region
North-east and Central North Pacific observed tracks in 2023
Tropical cyclone names (North-east Pacific)
Tropical cyclone names (Central North Pacific)
| Name & ID | Start & end dates | Central pressure, 1-minute MSW | Comments on Met Office global model forecasts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15-17 January | 982 mb, 55 knots | 01L was designated a subtropical storm after the event, so did not receive a name. Forecast tracks were very good. | |
| Arlene (02L) | 01-03 June | 998 mb, 35 knots | Arlene was only briefly a tropical storm. |
| Bret (03L) | 19-24 June | 996 mb, 60 knots | Track forecast errors were mixed for Bret. |
| Cindy (04L) | 22-26 June | 1001 mb, 50 knots | Track forecast errors were near to or below the recent mean for this storm. |
| Don (05L) | 14-24 July | 988 mb, 65 knots | Track forecast errors were well below the recent mean values and skill scores high. |
| Emily (07L) | 20-21 August | 1001 mb, 45 knots | Emily was a short-lived storm. |
| Franklin (08L) | 20 August - 01 September | 926 mb, 130 knots | Track forecasts were mixed for Franklin. There was a fast bias at longer lead times. |
| Gert (06L) | 19 August - 04 September | 997 mb, 50 knots | Only a few forecasts were verified for Gert. Track forecast errors were near the recent mean. |
| Harold (09L) | 21-23 August | 998 mb, 45 knots | No forecasts were verified for this short-lived storm. |
| Idalia (10L) | 26-31 August | 940 mb, 115 knots | Track forecasts were mostly above the recent mean due to a slow bias. |
| Jose (11L) | 29 August - 02 September | 997 mb, 50 knots | Due to merger with other storms few forecasts were verified. |
| Katia (12L) | 01-04 September | 998 mb, 50 knots | Katia was fairly short-lived as a storm. |
| Lee (13L) | 05-16 September | 926 mb, 145 knots | Despite slow and left-of-track biases, track forecast errors were below the recent mean values for this hurricane. |
| Margot (14L) | 07-17 September | 970 mb, 80 knots | Track forecast errors were mostly below the recent mean values. |
| Nigel (15L) | 15-22 September | 971 mb, 85 knots | Track forecasts were mostly very good for Hurricane Nigel. |
| Ophelia (16L) | 22-24 September | 981 mb, 60 knots | Ophelia was short-lived as a tropical storm. |
| Philippe (17L) | 23 September - 06 October | 998 mb, 45 knots | Track forecast errors were above the recent mean values. The early slow down and dip towards the caribbean was not well predicted. Later forecasts had a right-of-track bias. |
| Rina (18L) | 28 September - 02 October | 999 mb, 45 knots | Track forecast errors were above the recent mean values at longer lead times. |
| Sean (19L) | 11-16 October | 1004 mb, 40 knots | Track forecast errors were mixed for this storm. |
| Tammy (20L) | 18-29 October | 965 mb, 90 knots | There was a slow bias resulting in large forecast errors. |
| 21L | 23-24 October | 1007 mb, 25 knots | 21L did not attain tropical storm status. |
North Atlantic observed tracks in 2023
| Name & ID | Start & end dates | Central pressure, 1-/3-minute MSW | Comments on Met Office global model forecasts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10-15 May | 918 mb, 140/115 knots | Track errors were mostly close to the recent mean values. There was a slow bias in forecasts. | |
| Biparjoy (02A) | 06-16 June | 945 mb, 105/90 knots | Despite an initial left-of-track bias, track errors were below the recent mean values. |
| 03B | 09-10 June | 991 mb, 40/30 knots | 03B was a short-lived storm. |
| 04B | 31 July - 01 August | 987 mb, 40/30 knots | 04B was a short-lived storm. |
| Tej (05A) | 20-24 October | 956 mb, 110/95 knots | Track forecast errors were near to or slightly above the recent mean values. |
| Hamoon (06B) | 23-25 October | 978 mb, 80/65 knots | There was a slow bias in forecasts. |
| Midhili (07B) | 16-17 November | 1001 mb, 40/35 knots | Midhili was only briefly a tropical storm. |
North Indian observed tracks in 2023
| Name & ID | Start & end dates | Central pressure, 1-/10-minute MSW | Comments on Met Office global model forecasts |
|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel (01M) | 08-11 September | 995 mb, 45 knots | Daniel is assessed as having acquired tropical characteristics prior to landfall over Libya. Forecasts leading up to this time mostly predicted landfall a little farther south than actually occurred, but gave an indication of heavy rainfall after moving inland. |
Note, there is no official warning agency for Mediterranean tropical or subtropical cyclones, so identifiers are assigned by the Met Office to facilitate tracking and forecast verification.
Mediterranean observed tracks in 2023
Note on estimated wind speeds
1-minute MSW: Maximum sustained wind (knots) averaged over 1 minute (JTWC Hawaii, NHC Miami, CPHC Hawaii)
3-minute MSW: Maximum sustained wind (knots) averaged over 3 minutes (IMD New Delhi)
10-minute MSW: Maximum sustained wind (knots) averaged over 10 minutes (JMA Japan)
Note: Although 1-minute average winds should be stronger than 3-/10-minute averages, this may not be the case here since estimates are obtained from different warning centres using different analysis techniques.
