Observed and forecast tracks: southern hemisphere 2016-17
All tropical cyclones in the southern hemisphere season in 2016-17 are listed below including details of their start and end dates, lowest central pressure and maximum sustained wind (MSW).
Click on the name of the tropical cyclone to see a chart of the observed track and forecast tracks from the Met Office global model. Verification statistics on each tropical cyclone are available upon request from [email protected]. At the end of the season a verification report on the performance of the Met Office global model will be published.
| Name & ID | Start & end dates | Central pressure, 1-/10-minute MSW | Comments on Met Office global model forecasts |
|---|---|---|---|
| Abela (01S) | 16-19 July | 993 mb, 55/45 knots | Track forecast errors were above average at short lead times, but below average at longer lead times. |
| Bransby | 05-06 October | 988 mb, -/50 knots | Bransby was an early season subtropical storm. Track forecast errors were below last season's average. |
| Carlos (04S) | 04-11 February | 975 mb, 65/65 knots | Track forecast errors were below last season's average and skill scores were high. |
| Dineo (05S) | 13-16 February | 974 mb, 75/65 knots | Track forecast errors were near to or below last season's average and skill scores were high. |
| Enawo (09S) | 02-08 March | 925 mb, 125/110 knots | Track forecast errors were below last season's average although there was a polewards bias in forecasts. |
| Fernando (11S) | 07-14 March | 992 mb, 40/35 knots | Fernando only briefly recahed tropical storm status and few forecasts were verified. |
South-west Indian observed tracks in 2016-17
| Name & ID | Start & end dates | Central pressure, 1-/10-minute MSW | Comments on Met Office global model forecasts |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yvette (02S) | 19-24 December | 987 mb, 45/40 knots | Track forecast errors were below last season's average. |
| 03S | 27-29 January | 988 mb, 45/45 knots | Despite having winds above tropical storm strength, this low was not named as the winds did not wrap around the low centre sufficiently. Only a few forecasts were verified. |
| Alfred (06P) | 20 February | 994 mb, 40/45 knots | Alfred was only briefly a tropical storm before making landfall. |
| Blanche (10S) | 05-06 March | 988 mb, 50/50 knots | Blanche was only briefly a tropical storm. |
| Caleb (12S) | 23-27 March | 989 mb, 45/45 knots | Caleb was very well rpedicted by the model and track errors were small. |
| Debbie (13P) | 24-28 March | 943 mb, 105/100 knots | Early forecasts predicted landfall too far north, but overall track forecast errors were below last season's average for this cyclone. |
| 14P | 05-06 April | 998 mb, 35/30 knots | 14P was briefly a tropical storm as measured by 1-minute average winds. |
| Ernie (15S) | 06-10 April | 922 mb, 130/120 knots | Track forecast errors were above last season's average. The raid intensification was poorly forecast. |
| Frances (17S) | 27-30 April | 980 mb, 70/65 knots | Track forecast errors were above last season's average. The forecast intensity was too weak. |
| Greg (-) | 30 April | 997 mb, 30/35 knots | Greg was briefly a tropical storm as defined by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. |
Indonesian tropical cyclone names
Papua New Guinea tropical cyclone names
| Name & ID | Start & end dates | Central pressure, 1-/10-minute MSW | Comments on Met Office global model forecasts |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bart (07P) | 21-22 February | 994 mb, 40/40 knots | Track forecast errors were above last season's average. |
| 08P | 22 February | 995 mb, 40/30 knots | 08P was very short-lived and few forecasts verified. |
| Cook (16P) | 07-11 April | 961 mb, 85/85 knots | Track forecast errors were close to last season's average for this storm. |
| Donna (18P) | 02-10 May | 935 mb, 120/110 knots | There was a left-of-track bias in many forecasts. Track forecast errors were high at short lead times, but lower at longer lead times. |
| Ella (19P) | 09-14 May | 977 mb, 75/60 knots | Track forecast errors were slightly above last season's average for this storm. |
Western Australian observed tracks in 2016-17
Eastern Australian observed tracks in 2016-17
| Name & ID | Start & end dates | Central pressure, 1-/10-minute MSW | Comments on Met Office global model forecasts |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deni (01Q) | 15-17 November | 998 mb, -/35 knots | Deni was a short-lived subtropical storm. |
| Eçai (02Q) | 05-06 December | 992 mb, -/35 knots | Eçai was a short-lived subtropical storm. |
South Atlantic tropical cyclone names
South Atlantic observed tracks in 2016-17
Note on estimated wind speeds
1-minute MSW: Maximum sustained wind (knots) averaged over one minute (JTWC Hawaii)
10-minute MSW: Maximum sustained wind (knots) averaged over 10 minutes (Southern Hemisphere RSMCs and TCWCs)
Note: Although 1-minute average winds should be stronger than 10-minute average, this may not be the case here since estimates are obtained from different warning centres.
