Observed and forecast tracks: southern hemisphere 2016-17

Click on the name of the tropical cyclone to see a chart of the observed track and forecast tracks from the Met Office global model. Verification statistics on each tropical cyclone are available upon request from tropical_cyclones@metoffice.gov.uk. At the end of the season a verification report on the performance of the Met Office global model will be published.

South-West Indian (west of 90°E)
Name & ID Start & end dates Central pressure, 1-/10-minute MSW Comments on Met Office global model forecasts
Abela (01S) 16-19 July 993 mb, 55/45 knots Track forecast errors were above average at short lead times, but below average at longer lead times.
Bransby 05-06 October 988 mb, -/50 knots Bransby was an early season subtropical storm. Track forecast errors were below last season's average.
Carlos (04S) 04-11 February 975 mb, 65/65 knots Track forecast errors were below last season's average and skill scores were high.
Dineo (05S) 13-16 February 974 mb, 75/65 knots Track forecast errors were near to or below last season's average and skill scores were high.
Enawo (09S) 02-08 March 925 mb, 125/110 knots Track forecast errors were below last season's average although there was a polewards bias in forecasts.
Fernando (11S) 07-14 March 992 mb, 40/35 knots Fernando only briefly recahed tropical storm status and few forecasts were verified.
South-west Indian tropical cyclone names

South-west Indian observed tracks in 2016-17

Australian (90-160°E)
Name & ID Start & end dates Central pressure, 1-/10-minute MSW Comments on Met Office global model forecasts
Yvette (02S) 19-24 December 987 mb, 45/40 knots Track forecast errors were below last season's average.
03S 27-29 January 988 mb, 45/45 knots Despite having winds above tropical storm strength, this low was not named as the winds did not wrap around the low centre sufficiently. Only a few forecasts were verified.
Alfred (06P) 20 February 994 mb, 40/45 knots Alfred was only briefly a tropical storm before making landfall.
Blanche (10S) 05-06 March 988 mb, 50/50 knots Blanche was only briefly a tropical storm.
Caleb (12S) 23-27 March 989 mb, 45/45 knots Caleb was very well rpedicted by the model and track errors were small.
Debbie (13P) 24-28 March 943 mb, 105/100 knots Early forecasts predicted landfall too far north, but overall track forecast errors were below last season's average for this cyclone.
14P 05-06 April 998 mb, 35/30 knots 14P was briefly a tropical storm as measured by 1-minute average winds.
Ernie (15S) 06-10 April 922 mb, 130/120 knots Track forecast errors were above last season's average. The raid intensification was poorly forecast.
Frances (17S) 27-30 April 980 mb, 70/65 knots Track forecast errors were above last season's average. The forecast intensity was too weak.
Greg (-) 30 April 997 mb, 30/35 knots Greg was briefly a tropical storm as defined by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology.
Australian tropical cyclone names

Indonesian tropical cyclone names

Papua New Guinea tropical cyclone names

Fiji (east of 160°E)
Name & ID Start & end dates Central pressure, 1-/10-minute MSW Comments on Met Office global model forecasts
Bart (07P) 21-22 February 994 mb, 40/40 knots Track forecast errors were above last season's average.
08P 22 February 995 mb, 40/30 knots 08P was very short-lived and few forecasts verified.
Cook (16P) 07-11 April 961 mb, 85/85 knots Track forecast errors were close to last season's average for this storm.
Donna (18P) 02-10 May 935 mb, 120/110 knots There was a left-of-track bias in many forecasts. Track forecast errors were high at short lead times, but lower at longer lead times.
Ella (19P) 09-14 May 977 mb, 75/60 knots Track forecast errors were slightly above last season's average for this storm.

Fiji tropical cyclone names

Western Australian observed tracks in 2016-17

Eastern Australian observed tracks in 2016-17

South Atlantic
Name & ID Start & end dates Central pressure, 1-/10-minute MSW Comments on Met Office global model forecasts
Deni (01Q) 15-17 November 998 mb, -/35 knots Deni was a short-lived subtropical storm.
Eçai (02Q) 05-06 December 992 mb, -/35 knots Eçai was a short-lived subtropical storm.

South Atlantic tropical cyclone names

South Atlantic observed tracks in 2016-17

Note on estimated wind speeds

1-minute MSW: Maximum sustained wind (knots) averaged over one minute (JTWC Hawaii)
10-minute MSW: Maximum sustained wind (knots) averaged over 10 minutes (Southern Hemisphere RSMCs and TCWCs)

Note: Although 1-minute average winds should be stronger than 10-minute average, this may not be the case here since estimates are obtained from different warning centres.