Observed and forecast tracks: southern hemisphere 2018-19

Click on the name of the tropical cyclone to see a chart of the observed track and forecast tracks from the Met Office global model. Verification statistics on each tropical cyclone are available upon request from tropical_cyclones@metoffice.gov.uk. At the end of the season a verification report on the performance of the Met Office global model will be published.

South-West Indian (west of 90°E)
Name & ID Start & end dates Central pressure, 1-/10-minute MSW Comments on Met Office global model forecasts
01S 15-16 September 1004 mb, 45/30 knots Track forecast errors were near to last season's average.

Alcide (03S)

06-11 November 965 mb, 100/90 knots

Track forecast errors were above last season's average due to a slow bias.

Bouchra (04S)

10-20 November 990 mb, 55/50 knots

Track forecast errors were a little above last season's average.

Cilida (07S)

18-25 December 940 mb, 135/115 knots

Track forecast errors were slightly above last season's average at most lead times, although errors were low at long lead times.

Desmond (10S)

20-22 January 995 mb, 45/35 knots

Track errors were near last season's average.

Eketsang (-)

24-25 January 992 mb, -/40 knots

No forecasts were verified for this storm.

Funani (12S)

05-09 February 940 mb, 115/105 knots

Track forecast errors were below last season's average for this storm.

Gelena (13S)

05-15 February 942 mb, 120/110 knots

Track forecast errors were above last season's average due to a fast and right-of-track bias, particularly at longer lead times.

Haleh (17S)

09 March 945 mb, 115/95 knots

Track forecast errors were close to last season's average.

Idai (18S)

09-15 March 940 mb, 105/105 knots

Track forecast errors were below last season's average for all but a couple of lead times. Landfall was well predicted up to four days before it occurred.

Joaninha (22S)

22-31 March 939 mb, 115/95 knots

Track forecast errors were above last season's average at some shorter lead times, but beyond day 4 errors were very low. There was a left-of-track bias in forecasts.

Kenneth (24S)

22-26 April 934 mb, 125/115 knots

The landfall location of Kenneth was well predicted, although the speed of movement was a little fast.

Lorna (25S)

23-30 April 964 mb, 75/80 knots

Track forecast errors were above last season's average due to a fast and left-of-track bias in forecasts.

Tropical cyclone names

South-west Indian observed tracks in 2018-19

Australian (90-160°E) - including Indonesia and PNG
Name & ID Start & end dates Central pressure, 1-/10-minute MSW Comments on Met Office global model forecasts

Owen (05P)

02-16 December 960 mb, 80/80 knots

There was a fast bias in model forecasts resulting in errors above last season's average.

Kenanga (06S) *

15-23 December 942 mb, 115/100 knots

Track forecast errors were very low for this cyclone.

Penny (08P)

31 December-08 January 987 mb, 55/50 knots

Track forecast errors were low up to 120-h, but at longer lead times there was a large fast bias due to erroneous predictions of landfall.

Riley (11S)

23-30 January 977 mb, 70/60 knots

Riley was well forecast with track errors well below the previous season's average.

Savannah (19S)

13-21 March 956 mb, 100/95 knots

Track forecast errors were mostly below last season's average for this cyclone.

Trevor (20P)

17-23 March 950 mb, 105/95 knots

There was a slow bias in forecasts overall, but track forecast errors were well below last season's average.

Veronica (21S)

19-26 March 938 mb, 125/105 knots

Track forecast errors were low and skill scores high for this cyclone. A few forecasts predicted landfall rather than the sharp turn near the coast.

Wallace (23S)

05-10 April 980 mb, 65/65 knots

Track forecast errors were below last season's average for this storm.

Lili (26S)

09-10 May 1000 mb, 45/40 knots

Track forecast errors were a little above last season's average.

Ann (27P)

11-14 May 993 mb, 55/50 knots

Track forecast errors were mostly close to last season's average.

* For statistical purposes Kenanga was considered a South-West Indian Ocean storm as it spent most of its lifetime in that basin.

Tropical Cyclone Names

Fiji (east of 160°E)
Name & ID Start & end dates Central pressure, 1-/10-minute MSW Comments on Met Office global model forecasts
Liua (02P) 26-29 September 994 mb, 40/40 knots Track forecast errors were a little higher than last season's average.

Mona (09P)

02-07 January 985 mb, 50/50 knots

Track forecast errors were large for Mona.

Neil (14P)

09-10 February 996 mb, 35/35 knots

Neil was short-lived and few forecasts were verified.

Oma (15P)

12-23 February 974 mb, 75/70 knots

Oma was generally well forecast and track forecast errors were below last season's average.

Pola (16P)

25 February-01 March 950 mb, 95/90 knots

Forecasts for this storm were very skilful, with low errors.

Tropical Cyclone Names

Western Australian observed tracks in 2018-19

Eastern Australian observed tracks in 2018-19

South Atlantic
Name & ID Start & end dates Central pressure, 1-/10-minute MSW Comments on Met Office global model forecasts

Iba (01Q)

24-28 March 1006 mb, 40/40 knots

The development of this rare South Atlantic storm was well predicted by the model. Track forecast errors were low.

Jaguar (02Q)

20-22 May 1008 mb, -/35 knots

Jaguar was a subtropical storm for only a brief time and few forecasts were verified.

Tropical cyclone names

Note on estimated wind speeds

1-minute MSW: Maximum sustained wind (knots) averaged over one minute (JTWC Hawaii)
10-minute MSW: Maximum sustained wind (knots) averaged over 10 minutes (Southern Hemisphere RSMCs and TCWCs)

Note: Although 1-minute average winds should be stronger than 10-minute average, this may not be the case here since estimates are obtained from different warning centres.