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of Reading 3 School of Ocean and Earth Science, National Oceanography Centre, University of Southampton May 2025 Cite this report as: Arnell, N.W., Hawkins, E., Shepherd, T.G., Haigh, I.D., Harvey, B., Wilcox, L., Shaffrey, L. & Turner, A.G. (2025) High-impact low-likelihood climate scenarios for the UK

Scotland, where it may be persistent at times. Eastern areas, especially those to the lee of high ground, will see drier and brighter spells, with southern regions more generally enjoying improved conditions as the day progresses. Northern Scotland will experience a mix of showery rain and brighter

Although temperatures may reach 27°C for some this weekend, the Met Office have issued yellow thunderstorm warnings for Sunday. They cover a large part of England and Wales from 12 noon until 22:00, parts of Northern Ireland from 11:00 until 19:00 and parts of Scotland from 14:00 until 04:00 Monday

this is localised to upland areas which are exposed to westerly maritime air masses. Areas in the lee of these uplands receive significantly less rainfall, including the large urban areas of Manchester, which receive around 800 mm per year. North West England is one of the more exposed parts of the UK and may

produce intense rainfall rates, which may lead to flooding. The South West of England is exposed to deep depressions, which come off the Atlantic, and can sometimes bring very strong winds, especially in the winter half of the year. For this reason, average annual windspeed strength across SW England

and may experience strong winds associated with the passage of deep lows. The frequency and strength of these depressions is greatest in the winter half of the year, with the strongest winds coming in off the Irish Sea from the SW to WNW. HOW HAS THE CITY'S CLIMATE CHANGED? Temperature Difference

this is localised to upland areas which are exposed to westerly maritime air masses. Areas in the lee of these uplands receive significantly less rainfall, including the large urban areas of Manchester, which receive around 800 mm per year. North West England is one of the more exposed parts of the UK and may

. Inland valleys experience the coldest winter night temperatures, such as Rhyader (Powys) which experienced -23.3°C in January 1940. Rainfall in Wales varies widely, with Snowdonia receiving average annual totals exceeding 3000 mm in comparison to places along the coast which may receive less than

are the warmest months in the region with mean daily maxima reaching up to 19 °C in southern Dumfries and Galloway and the Clyde valley. These may be compared with 23.5 °C in the London area. Instances of extreme high temperatures are rare. Average annual rainfall totals range from less than 1000 mm

intense rainfall rates, which may lead to flooding. The South West of England is exposed to deep depressions, which come off the Atlantic, and can sometimes bring very strong winds, especially in the winter half of the year. For this reason, average annual windspeed strength across SW England