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and is useful for assessing any systematic model bias. It can be seen that the observations largely lie within this ensemble spread, except perhaps for temperature in spring where there is some suggestion that UKCP Local projections are slightly too cool. There are also consistent trends across all

used or if it is AMIP or coupled configuration. • Intensity (I IN ): AMIP simulation within limits of ERA5 variability, improving error common in previous model generations. Coupled: larger spread, with a tendency to lie in the weaker side. Alternative behaviours: error in QUMP PPE members • PPEs

different types of weather. Lying snow can prevent staff entering or leaving a site, fog and low cloud can limit visibility and ice and flooding can prevent the use of both public and site roads. Equipment and infrastructure such as turbine blades or power lines can be damaged by ice, plus

) in the local electron density. L5 L1 and dynamics of such features using coronagraph images and we will also compile J-maps (Figure 5; see also Wang et al., 2000; Davies et al., 2009). As a starting point for the data base of Earth CONLUSIONS • Main advantages of L5 Space Weather mission lies in L5 remote

separately shows lines that lie close to the diagonal, which indicates that the modelled distribution compares well with the observed one. Hence, on the basis of this assessments, the models are deemed suitable for an attribution analysis of extreme heatwaves in the reference region. 2 Figure 2

al., 2013). The observed temperature trend is within the range of the ALL simulations (Fig. 2, top panel). Power spectra also indicate good consistency between the models and CRUTEM5 (middle panel). The Q-Q plot produced for each simulation separately shows lines that lie close to the diagonal, which

and CRUTEM5 (middle panel). The Q-Q plot produced for each simulation separately shows lines that lie close to the diagonal, which indicates that the modelled distribution compares well with 2 the observed one. Hence, on the basis of this assessments, the models are deemed suitable for an attribution

produced for each simulation separately shows lines that lie close to the diagonal, which indicates that the modelled distribution compares well with the observed one. Hence, on the basis of this assessments, the models are deemed suitable for an attribution analysis of extreme heatwaves in the reference

time-steps) and even filtered to only show features that lie between a particular vertical range. • Movement and evolution of features with time can be seen SIGWX forecasts for a particular validity time will be available with a longer lead time and using more up to date model data. NEW WAFS SIGWX

of the underlying model distributions. There may be a greater than 10% chance that the real-world response lies outside the 5th to 95th percentile range and this likelihood cannot be accurately quantified. We cannot rule out substantial additional sea level rise associated primarily with dynamic ice discharge