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. In total low-lying coastal areas received only around 50mm or less, however much of the high ground received 100 to 150mm, with some locations exceeding 150mm. The wettest areas were across the central Cumbrian fells, which received 200 to 300mm of rainfall and in a few locations 300 to 400mm. Upland

storm forecasts compared to reference forecast (frequency of occurrence over preceding 180 days) (RPSS: relative improvement of probability forecast over reference forecast in predicting category which observation fell into) • Point averages for day 1 lie above no-skill line, & most of days 2-4

Kingdom lies in the latitude of predominantly westerly winds where depressions and fronts move bands of cloud and rain eastwards or north-eastwards across the North Atlantic. Between the depressions there are often small mobile anticyclones bringing welcome fair weather. Climate of the British

services and city infrastructure. Many of these communities, however, are in low-lying areas or next to rivers. This makes them extremely vulnerable to flooding, which can destroy homes and assets or even endanger life. Climate change means the threat is likely to increase, as some countries see

anomaly is then added to the HadISST dataset 1989-2002 climatology to give a prediction for September 2010 of 5.5 million square kilometres. Despite the known model deficiencies, it is encouraging that this estimate lies in the range of the June Outlook report projections. Figure 2: GloSea4 forecast

much of the UK. Dr McCarthy adds: “For the first three days of March 2018 there were more than 100 weather observation stations recording at least 2cm of lying snow. Just over 50 of these stations had 10cm or more for those first three days. In some locations this snow persisted until 18 March when

, an advantage that is not readily available from statistical methods. To generate the ensemble, the starting conditions for the forecast are varied slightly to make 41 individual predictions (known as ensemble members). The forecast probability that the number of storms will lie in predefined ranges

and is useful for assessing any systematic model bias. It can be seen that the observations largely lie within this ensemble spread, except perhaps for temperature in spring where there is some suggestion that UKCP Local projections are slightly too cool. There are also consistent trends across all

and CRUTEM5 (middle panel). The Q-Q plot produced for each simulation separately shows lines that lie close to the diagonal, which indicates that the modelled distribution compares well with 2 the observed one. Hence, on the basis of this assessments, the models are deemed suitable for an attribution

al., 2013). The observed temperature trend is within the range of the ALL simulations (Fig. 2, top panel). Power spectra also indicate good consistency between the models and CRUTEM5 (middle panel). The Q-Q plot produced for each simulation separately shows lines that lie close to the diagonal, which