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Instructions This spreadsheet contains the UKCP18 key results for the probabilistic projections for aggregated regions and sea level rise information in a single place. Probabilistic projections This page contains summary statistics of future changes over land for all countries, administrative

of coastal flooding due to sea level rise: a multi-model simultaneous treatment of mitigation, adaptation, and residual impacts. Environ. Res. Commun. 2, 015002 (2020). 110. Byers, E. et al. Global exposure and vulnerability to multi-sector development and climate change hotspots. Environ. Res. Lett. 13

Forecast of the annual rise in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration measured at Mauna Loa, Hawaii for 2023

the Mauna Loa observatory in Hawaii that date back to 1958. This is a good guide to the rise in global annual mean CO2  concentrations, which has typically been about 1.8 ppm below the Mauna Loa level in recent years. With the global CO2 concentration having been 417.2 ppm in 2022, this suggests

Forecast of the annual rise in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration measured at Mauna Loa, Hawaii for 2022

.     This will continue the rising trend in CO2 seen in the long-term record of measurements from the Mauna Loa observatory in Hawaii that date back to 1958 and are a good guide to global CO2 levels. However, the rise from 2021 to 2022 will be smaller than the average annual rises over recent years

at near record levels throughout, variations in decadal climate in the Pacific led to the slowdown in the rise of Global Mean Surface Temperature. The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) – a pattern of warm and cool phases in Pacific sea-surface temperature – can persist for a decade or more. Coinciding

Forecast of the annual rise in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration measured at the Mauna Loa, Hawaii for 2021

observatory in Hawaii that date back to 1958 and are a good guide to global CO2 levels. However, the rise from 2020 to 2021 will be smaller than the annual rises in the previous two years (Figure 2). This is despite global emissions having temporarily fallen in early 2020 as a result of the Covid-19 pandemic

Atmospheric CO2 rise predicted to exceed IPCC 1.5°C scenarios

. The Met Office CO2 forecast takes account of both anthropogenic emissions and the impacts of ENSO-related climate variability on natural carbon sinks, accounting for the latter using the observed correlation between the annual CO2 rise and sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the equatorial Pacific

, and that ice cover returns to its previous state when the temperature is reduced again (5). Other studies have shown that the decline in Arctic sea ice extent is related to atmospheric CO2 concentration (6) (7) and suggest that if global temperatures were to level out sea ice extent would stabilise. (5

, and that ice cover returns to its previous state when the temperature is reduced again (5). Other studies have shown that the decline in Arctic sea ice extent is related to atmospheric CO2 concentration (6) (7) and suggest that if global temperatures were to level out sea ice extent would stabilise. (5

is around 33-43% (Fig. 3). Figure 3. Probability functions of Arctic sea ice extent for global temperature rise of 1.5°C (red) and 2.0°C (blue) above preindustrial levels. The threshold for an ice-free Arctic is shown by the vertical line. 8 However, most of the CMIP5 models used for the AR5 report