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Forecast of the annual rise in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration measured at the Mauna Loa, Hawaii for 2020

.    The size of the annual CO2 rise depends on anthropogenic emissions and the strength of natural carbon sinks which are affected by climate variability.  Our method uses a statistical relationship between the annual CO2 rise, anthropogenic CO2 emissions and sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Niño3.4

the observed correlation between the annual CO2 rise and sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the equatorial Pacific Ocean (Figure 3). © Crown copyright 2024, Met Office Page 2 of 11 Figure 3. Annual CO2 growth rate for years 1960 to 2023 and predicted for 2024 relative to the preceding year, vs. the Niño3.4

Atmospheric CO2 rise now exceeding IPCC 1.5°C scenarios

and hence a slower annual CO2 rise. The Met Office CO2 forecast takes account of both anthropogenic emissions and the impacts of ENSO-related climate variability on natural carbon sinks, accounting for the latter using the observed correlation between the annual CO2 rise and sea surface temperatures

Atmospheric CO2 rise now exceeding IPCC 1.5°C scenarios

and hence a slower annual CO2 rise. The Met Office CO2 forecast takes account of both anthropogenic emissions and the impacts of ENSO-related climate variability on natural carbon sinks, accounting for the latter using the observed correlation between the annual CO2 rise and sea surface temperatures (SSTs

Forecast of the annual rise in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration measured at the Mauna Loa, Hawaii for 2019

observatory in Hawaii that date back to 1958 and are a good guide to global CO2 levels. As a result, we forecast the 2019 annual average CO2 concentration at Mauna Loa to be 411.3 ± 0.6 ppm.   Figure 1. Forecast rise in CO2 concentration at the Mauna Loa observatory from 2018 to 2019 (blue), compared

, but the effect will likely be temporary. • Water levels in the Caspian Sea, in Central Asia, are projected to fall 8-14m by 2100 because of higher rates of warming-induced evaporation from the sea surface and wider catchment. Falling water levels will expose shallower areas that currently provide key aquatic

. • In the Antarctic, sea ice extent remains low for the time of year; the maximum sea ice extent for the year of 18.15 million square km, recorded on 30 September, is currently the fourth lowest on record. It is not yet certain that extent will not rise further. September sea ice extent Arctic sea ice extent

Briefing on the 2018 Arctic sea ice melt season and the Antarctic sea ice state by Alex West and Ed Blockley

, recorded on 30th September, is currently the fourth lowest on record. It is not yet certain that extent will not rise further. September sea ice extent Arctic sea ice extent for the month of September 2018 was 4.70 million square km according to the HadISST1.2 dataset (Rayner et al, 2003

Forecast of the annual rise in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration measured at the Mauna Loa, Hawaii for 2018

The mean atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration will continue to rise in 2018 due to fossil fuel emissions. Although emissions were at record levels in 2017, the build-up in the atmospheric is likely to be smaller than in the last two years due to the moderating effect of La Niña conditions

being 'right' at the same time. The most influential factors are: a source of warm, moist air derived from tropical oceans with sea surface temperatures normally in the region of, or in excess, of 27 °C; winds near the ocean surface blowing from different directions converging and causing air to rise