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Three consecutive tropical nights now likely in the UK Jennifer S. R. Pirret, Fraser C. Lott, Emily Wallace, Mark McCarthy, Dan Hollis, Peter Stott, Helen Roberts, Christophe E. Sarran. www.metoffice.gov.uk © Crown Copyright 2023, Met Office © Crown copyright 2020, Met Office Page 1 of 25 Document

on Lake Victoria. Lakes are outlined in white, coastline and political borders in black for the SRES A1B scenario (Nakicenovic et al. 2000). The RCM domain extends from 24.64°W to 60.28°E and 45.76°S to 42.24°N. This domain has been chosen to coincide with that used by CORDEX for Africa (AFR-44

10/13 E 900 12/16 E 10/13 SE 8/11 SE 6/10 SE 5/9 SE 7/12 SW 7/10 NW 7/9 N 10/13 E 600 10/14 E 9/13 SE 7/10 SE 5/9 SE 4/8 SE 7/11 W 6/9 NW 4/5 N 8/11 E 300 6/11 E 6/10 E 6/9 E 4/8 SE 3/7 S 5/10 W 5/9 NW 2/6 NE 4/9 E Glen 8/11 E 8/10 E 5/8 SE 3/7 S 5/10 W 8/13 W 4/7 NW 2/4 N 5/7 E Height (m

2021 (0900UTC 18th to 0900UTC 21st). The table below lists rainfall totals at selected stations from storm Christoph. Station Rainfall total 18 to 20 January (mm) January 1981- 2010 long-term average (mm) % of average Derwent Bridge, County Durham 86.6 75.3 115 Worleston S Wks, Cheshire 61.2 54.2

Weather Science provides the forecasting capabilities that are used for routine operational short to medium range forecasting of the weather, the oceans and their impacts. Report No. Title Author(s) Year 667 Urban-scale Modelling for WesCon Kirsty Hanley and Humphrey Lean 2025 666 Application

(ubar DJF) Changes in standard deviation (1.5mT DJF) Changes in standard deviation (MSLP DJF) Comparison of change in mean bias (MSLP DJF mean) If we had more years by running an ensemble, how big should it be? Change in DJF zm u telecon to SPV (m/s per m/s) Conclusions from variance/teleconnection

operators. Performance measure: ≤ 2.85m/s for Wind and ≤ 0.56K for Temperature (based on 12-month mean values) Root Mean Square Vector Error 4.00 3.80 3.60 3.40 3.20 3.00 2.80 Northern Hemisphere T+24 Wind (m/s) at 250hPa Monthly Rolling 12-month mean Target Latest value: 2.93 m/s Root Mean Square

., Wigley, T. M. L., Lanzante, J. R., Solomon, S., Free, M., Gleckler, P. J., Jones, P. D., Karl, T. R., Klein, S. A., Mears, C., Nychka, D., Schmidt, G. A., Sherwood, S. C. and Wentz, F. J.: Consistency of modelled and observed temperature trends in the tropical troposphere. Int. J. Climatol., 28

operators. Performance measure: ≤ 2.85m/s for Wind and ≤ 0.56K for Temperature (based on 12-month mean values) Root Mean Square Vector Error 4.00 3.80 3.60 3.40 3.20 3.00 2.80 Northern Hemisphere T+24 Wind (m/s) at 250hPa Monthly Rolling 12-month mean Target Latest value: 2.92 m/s Root Mean Square

operators. Performance measure: ≤ 2.85m/s for Wind and ≤ 0.56K for Temperature (based on 12-month mean values) Root Mean Square Vector Error 4.00 3.80 3.60 3.40 3.20 3.00 2.80 Northern Hemisphere T+24 Wind (m/s) at 250hPa Monthly Rolling 12-month mean Target Latest value: 2.95 m/s Root Mean Square Error