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operators. Performance measure: ≤ 2.85m/s for Wind and ≤ 0.56K for Temperature (based on 12-month mean values) Root Mean Square Vector Error 4.00 3.80 3.60 3.40 3.20 3.00 2.80 Northern Hemisphere T+24 Wind (m/s) at 250hPa Monthly Rolling 12-month mean Target Latest value: 2.92 m/s Root Mean Square

. Performance measure: ≤ 2.85m/s for Wind and ≤ 0.56K for Temperature (based on 12-month mean values) Root Mean Square Vector Error 4.00 3.80 3.60 3.40 3.20 3.00 2.80 Northern Hemisphere T+24 Wind (m/s) at 250hPa Monthly Rolling 12-month mean Target Latest value: 2.95 m/s Root Mean Square Error 2.60 2012

. Performance measure: ≤ 2.85m/s for Wind and ≤ 0.56K for Temperature (based on 12-month mean values) Root Mean Square Vector Error 4.00 3.80 3.60 3.40 3.20 3.00 2.80 Northern Hemisphere T+24 Wind (m/s) at 250hPa Monthly Rolling 12-month mean Target Latest value: 2.95 m/s Root Mean Square Error 2.60 2012

of scientists at the Met Office to better understand these shifts in our climate. Can you present a 2050’s forecast with help from Met Office Presenter Annie? 50 minutes Materials required • YouTube access • • 2050 slides Climate Change slides 1 Future Forecast 2050 Activity Steps What is Climate Change? 01

(ubar DJF) Changes in standard deviation (1.5mT DJF) Changes in standard deviation (MSLP DJF) Comparison of change in mean bias (MSLP DJF mean) If we had more years by running an ensemble, how big should it be? Change in DJF zm u telecon to SPV (m/s per m/s) Conclusions from variance/teleconnection

Weather Science provides the forecasting capabilities that are used for routine operational short to medium range forecasting of the weather, the oceans and their impacts. Report No. Title Author(s) Year 667 Urban-scale Modelling for WesCon Kirsty Hanley and Humphrey Lean 2025 666 Application

2021 (0900UTC 18th to 0900UTC 21st). The table below lists rainfall totals at selected stations from storm Christoph. Station Rainfall total 18 to 20 January (mm) January 1981- 2010 long-term average (mm) % of average Derwent Bridge, County Durham 86.6 75.3 115 Worleston S Wks, Cheshire 61.2 54.2

McSweeney et al. (2015). Maps show monsoon circulation in 850 hPa flow for JJA for observations from ERA40 and a selection of CMIP5 models. Categories from the assessment are given in brackets for the CMIP5 models: IP – implausible, SB – significant biases, B – biases, S – satisfactory They find

. The only factors affecting ET O are weather parameters i.e., temperature, wind speed, relative humidity and sunshine hours. The FAO Penman- Monteith equation is suggested as the single method for determining ET O . ET o 900 0.408��R n � G� � � U 2 ( e mm / day� � T � 273 � � � (1 � 0.34U ) � 2 s � e

and customer requirements, aimed at mitigating against disruptive weather events. Emma was promoted again in 2017, becoming Met Office NATS Operations manager. External recognition Emma obtained a Qualification and Credit Framework (QCF) Level 5 Diploma in Meteorological Forecasting in 2012. She also holds the World Meteorological Organization (WMO)’s Aeronautical Meteorological Forecasters (AMF) accreditation.