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value forecast to airline operators. Performance measure: ≤ 2.85m/s for Wind and ≤ 0.56K for Temperature (based on 12-month mean values) Root Mean Square Vector Error 4.00 3.80 3.60 3.40 3.20 3.00 2.80 Northern Hemisphere T+24 Wind (m/s) at 250hPa Monthly Rolling 12-month mean Target Latest value

© Crown Copyright 2023 References Chan, S.C, Kendon, E.J, Fowler, H.J, Youngman, B.D, Dale, M., Short, C. (2023) New extreme rainfall projections for improved climate resilience of urban drainage systems. Climate Services. Vol 30 https://doi. org/10.1016/j.cliser.2023.100375 Chan, S C, Kendon, E J

and vegetation Neil Kaye Neil specialises in creating bespoke visualisations and interactive web tools for climate science Dr Fraser Lott Fraser works on the detection and attribution of climate change, particularly of climate-related events. Dr Gareth S Jones Gareth's main research activity

surface temperature data is assimilated into shelf models and James' current work is focused on implementing assimilation of temperature and salinity profiles. This project is made challenging by the shelf seas environment. In particular, complex bathymetry and the s-coordinate vertical levels used

Deeper discovery Session 2 – Climate change and 2050’s forecast https://showyourstripes.info/ Professor Ed Hawkins Global temperature change www.metoffice.gov.uk/schools 2 © Crown Copyright 2024, Met Office Global Projections www.metoffice.gov.uk/schools 3 © Crown Copyright 2024, Met Office Met

capacity horizontal of user organisation(s) scaling Enhancing Planning to Increasing Enhancing the the scalability address capacity the enabling of of spontaneous the service environment developer scaling Determining Increasing team the role users’ of diversification capacity Planning to Making

Current issue date: 14 August 2023 Original approval(s): Expiry date: 13 August 2026 ISO 14001 - 3 August 2017 Certificate identity number: 10543563 Certificate of Approval This is to certify that the Management System of: Met Office FitzRoy Road, Exeter, EX1 3PB, United Kingdom has been approved

geomagnetic storm, so far, of this solar cycle • Major disturbance of ionosphere: – Night-time ionosphere over S. England heavily depleted, compared to normal – EGNOS (GPS correction system) degraded, see left (red = best performance, blue = worst) • Aurora seen in north of UK • Cause may

for the JMA (left) and JTWC (right) observed TC datasets, for the periods 1982 to 2015 (JMA) and 1947 to 2015 (JTWC). Uncertainty is estimated by the profile likelihood method and the outer curves represent the 95% confidence levels. The minimum threshold is set to 30m/s. The blue line passes through

, A. Arribas, G. S. Jones, D. Copsey, J. R. Knight, and W. J. Tennant, 2013: A new HadGEM3-A based system for attribution of weather and climaterelated extreme events, J. Clim., 26, 2756-2783, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00169.1. Christidis, N., 2021: Using CMIP6 multi-model ensembles for near real-time