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. The Met Office global temperature forecast for 2021 is slightly lower than some previous years since 2015, largely because of the influence of La Niña in the tropical Pacific, where sea surface temperatures are 1.0-2.0 °C below average. La Niña is the opposing side of El Niño and has a temporary

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climate models for downscaling . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 2.3 Experimental design . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 3 Results: Met Office Simulations and Analysis 8 3.1 Environmental factors influencing tropical cyclones

of HadCM3 (Collins et al., 2011), that used a set of parameter perturbations corresponding to the relevant HadRM3-PPE member. Time series of GMST(t) are smoothed 1 prior to fitting the EV parameters, in order to remove the influence of internal variability and isolate the long-term effects of climate

Yoko works to quantify and reduce uncertainty in climate change, through understanding and improving the representation of cloud-radiative processes.

feedback is currently the largest uncertainty in GCM predictions of climate sensitivity under climate change. Yoko works on understanding cloud-radiation fields and feedbacks using satellite observations and GCMs, including the development of metrics to assess radiative feedbacks in climate models

in modulating climate variability via the influence of sea surface temperatures (Taylor et al. 2002, 2011; Stephenson et al. 2007; Karmalkar et al. 2012). Most of the previous sensitivity studies of RCMs to domain size have dealt with continental or semi-continental regions dominated by land areas

/Green Climate Fund); National Influence � � Policy influencing through enhanced quality and communication of data: Enhanced weather and climate services can underpin more effective policy making and strategic planning (e.g. through national development and sector strategies). Proposals should

September 2019 Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Briefing Note Global sea level rise – the latest evidence • Observations show sea levels are rising at an accelerating rate and human influence is the dominant cause. • Climate projections show sea level will continue to rise for several centuries

Areas of expertise Interaction between convection and large-scale circulation Climate model development and evaluation Regional hydrological cycles and related extremes Radiative climate feedbacks Publications by Lorenzo Tomassini Current activities Lorenzo is a Senior Scientist on convection

Climate change is causing a dramatic increase in the frequency of temperature extremes and number of temperature records the UK experiences.

September heatwave and the most active start to the storm naming season culminating in serious flooding problems in the autumn, it was another year of typically varied weather. But underlying this natural variability is a continuing and increasing influence of climate change which is influencing