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members which start at 6 different initial forecast times and receive boundary conditions from different cycles of the driving global ensemble, MOGREPS-G.  This approach is known as ‘time-lagging’. In this way, spread between members comes from perturbations on small scales (through the different

in the past?  Further progress in constraining climate sensitivity could come from improved understanding of the causes of surface temperature change patterns in observations and climate model projections. The paper, Accounting for changing temperature patterns increases historical estimates of climate sensitivity (doi: 10.1029/2018GL078887) is published in Geophysical Research Letters.

reference number WISER0011 An MEL workshop for the WISER programme was held in Nairobi in December, facilitated by LTS International. This provided an opportunity for key WISER stakeholders to come together and discuss the role of MEL in project and programme design and implementation. You may also

Areas of expertise Ocean heat uptake: how it comes about in AOGCMs, why their results differ, what we can deduce from observations of change in the ocean interior. Sea-level change: processes of change in AOGCMs, causes of its simulated regional distribution. Climate sensitivity: how to diagnose

issued a Level 2 Cold weather alert for the coming weekend and Dr Thomas Waite, a Consultant in Health Protection at Public Health England, said: “The weather has felt much milder for the last week or so but this weekend the forecasters tell us it will get much colder again. And that may come

, and switch off your mobile phone Our enquiry service We aim to respond to non-commercial enquiries within 5 working days and will spend up to 30 minutes dealing with your request. If your enquiry requires more time and research then you are welcome to come and use our resources in person. We can

thing on Friday morning. Not great news for gardeners, especially with all the dry weather, albeit there is some rain to come through the next week or so." Keep up to date with weather warnings, and you can find the latest forecast on our website, on YouTube, by following us on X and Facebook, as well as on our mobile app which is available for iPhone from the App store and for Android from the Google Play store.

for gardeners, especially with all the dry weather, albeit there is some rain to come through the next week or so." Keep up to date with weather warnings, and you can find the latest forecast on our website, on YouTube, by following us on X and Facebook, as well as on our mobile app which is available for iPhone from the App store and for Android from the Google Play store.

to develop an operational lightning scheme, allowing lightning forecasts to come directly from the model, which is available routinely to Met Office forecasters. To try and understand thunderstorm activity better in reality and high-resolution models, Jonathan works in collaboration with academics

to come. A little bit disappointing, I suppose, for the bank holiday weekend, but it is long overdue. It's been a very dry spring indeed. “So overall for the bank holiday weekend, it is going to be changeable and unsettled at times, but the wettest of the weather across the Northwest, feeling a bit