The UK’s weather is never short of drama, and the latest 10-day trend brings a classic mix of autumnal conditions: heavy rain, strong winds, and the arrival of the season’s first named storm.
In this article, we break down the key features of the forecast period, explain the science behind the outlook, and highlight what to expect as we move through the first half of October.
Storm Amy named as the first storm of autumn
Earlier this week, the Met Office named Storm Amy, the first named storm of the autumn and the first to come from this season’s new storm naming list. Storm Amy is set to bring impacts to many parts of the UK, but particularly to northern areas on Friday night.
The naming of a storm signals the potential for significant disruption, and Amy is no exception, with strong winds and heavy rain expected to affect transport, power supplies, and coastal areas.
Heavy rain and a strong weather gradient
Before Amy arrives, the UK faces a spell of heavy rain but not everywhere will be equally affected. There is currently a strong northwest-southeast gradient across the country. This is due to a weather front sitting over northwest Scotland, aligned with the isobars and the Jetstream, which means it is not being pushed through the country as quickly as usual. Instead, it is “waving” across the country, ebbing and flowing and bringing pulses of heavy rain on and off over several days.
READ MORE: Met Office Deep Dive: Autumn’s stormy spell and tropical influences
This pattern has already brought significant rainfall to parts of western Scotland, and the trend is set to continue. Over the next couple of days, some of the most exposed hills in western Scotland could see 50 to 80 millimetres of rain, prompting a yellow rain warning. Elsewhere, outbreaks of rain will affect the north and east of Scotland, with occasional spots of rain for western England and Wales. However, the Midlands and the southeast will see more brightness, with temperatures reaching the high teens or low 20s.
A soggy night and a mild start to Friday
As the rain finally moves through later Thursday, it will push across the whole of the UK, leading to a soggy night for many and some heavy rain for a time. Most places will start Friday a little quieter, although heavy bursts of rain will still be clearing East Anglia and the southeast. Notably, it will be a very mild night across the UK, a stark contrast for the south, which has experienced some chilly mornings recently. Temperatures on Friday morning will be around 14°C or 15°C as the system clears through.
The science behind storm Amy’s development
Storm Amy’s arrival is closely linked to developments across the Atlantic. Hurricanes Humberto and Imelda on the other side of the Atlantic were interacting. Some of the energy from hurricane Humberto was transferring into Imelda, and as Humberto diminished, its remnants formed a new low-pressure system. This low was then picked up by a powerful Jetstream coming out of North America, allowing it to be swept up in the westerly Atlantic airflow and move towards the UK.
As Amy moves north of the Jetstream, the cold side, it spins up rapidly, with many isobars added to the centre of the low. By Friday evening, Amy is forecast to bear down on the UK as a very deep area of low pressure. The precise track and depth of Amy remain uncertain, due to the complex interactions between the remnants of the hurricanes and the Jetstream.
READ MORE: Storm Amy named
Forecast models, including the Met Office and European models, show a deep area of low pressure to the northwest of the UK, but there is some divergence in both the track and the depth of the low.
Forecast uncertainty and ensemble modelling
The Met Office uses ensemble modelling to account for uncertainty in the forecast. The European model, for example, is run many times with slightly different starting conditions to see how small differences can escalate into larger ones later on. For Amy, the ensemble members show a spread in the track and depth of the low by Friday night. This divergence is due to subtle differences in how the Jetstream interacts with the remnants of the hurricanes.
By 3:00 am on Saturday, there are reasonable differences in the depth of the low, about 10 hectopascals, which will lead to subtle differences and uncertainties in the peak wind strength. While the exact peak wind speeds for storm Amy are not yet nailed down, there is a reasonable idea of where the strongest winds will occur and the rough values expected.
Expected impacts: Wind, rain, and warnings
Storm Amy is forecast to cross the north of the UK, bringing a broad swathe of 50 to 60 mph wind gusts across west and north Wales, northern England, Scotland, and Northern Ireland. In some exposed spots, gusts could reach 80 to 90 mph, especially in the north and northwest of Scotland. Yellow warnings for wind are in force for Northern Ireland, north Wales, parts of northern England, and much of Scotland. These winds could cause disruption to transport, power supplies, and dangerous conditions around coasts, with large waves and flying debris.
The Met Office has also issued an Amber warning for wind for northern and western parts of Scotland, which comes into force from 5pm on Friday and will be active until 9am on Saturday.
In addition to the wind, another spell of heavy rain is expected. Friday will start fine for many parts of the UK after the first system clears, with bright weather in the Midlands, eastern England, and eastern Scotland. However, it will soon turn cloudy in the west, with rain pushing into Northern Ireland during Friday afternoon. This rain will become heavier and more persistent across many parts of the UK, particularly in Scotland, where there is a risk of localised flooding.
READ MORE: How are weather warnings categorised?
One notable feature of the forecast is the potential for “line convection”, a very thin line of intense rainfall that can bring a short spell of very heavy rain and gusty winds. This is expected during the early hours of Saturday as an active weather front topples south-eastwards across much of England and Wales.
The weekend: Unsettled, windy, and cool
Peak winds in the far north and northwest are expected during the early hours of Saturday, after which the worst of the weather will push through. Saturday will start soggy in the southeast, with blustery showers quickly moving into the north and northwest. It will be a relatively mild night, but it won’t be feeling very pleasant first thing due to strong winds and frequent showers. Heavy downpours, possibly with thunder, will turn more persistent in the north and northwest, arriving in bands between brighter spells in the south.
Saturday will feel cooler, thanks to a strong north-westerly breeze. Showers will continue overnight, especially in the north and west, with a little drier and clearer weather as winds eventually ease after a blustery day.
By Sunday morning, temperatures will again be in double figures, with a brighter start across England and Wales. The afternoon will be quieter but not entirely settled, with a westerly breeze, spells of light to moderate rain, and a lot of cloud cover. The best chance of brighter spells will be towards the southeast.
Looking ahead: Westerly pattern and high-pressure building
The unsettled theme continues into the start of next week, with a westerly breeze dominating. High pressure will be sitting to the south, with low pressure well to the north. Storm Amy will have moved away, and the Jetstream will be to the north of the UK. Hurricane Imelda, now an ex-hurricane, is unlikely to affect the UK and is expected to fizzle out in the mid-Atlantic.
The probability plots for the next two weeks show that westerly-dominated weather patterns are most likely on Monday, Tuesday, and perhaps Wednesday. This means similar weather, nothing particularly stormy or unsettled, but generally a westerly flavour. By Wednesday, spells of rain will continue for the west and northwest, possibly causing issues for western Scotland, but it will be drier in the south and southeast. Later in the week, it is expected to turn drier more widely across the UK, with a better chance of high pressure starting to build in.
READ MORE: A look back on the 24/25 storm season
High pressure and a more settled outlook
By the end of the 10-day period, high pressure is expected to become increasingly dominant in the model output. The most likely weather pattern for Friday shows high pressure firmly in place across the south of the UK, with below-average rainfall for the time of year. The second and third most likely patterns also show high pressure sitting just to the south or west of the UK. If this comes off, the UK can expect drier, much more settled, and calmer weather, with the possibility of misty mornings and plenty of sunny spells.
Of particular note is the lack of significant low-pressure tracks affecting the UK in the second half of next week. Most low-pressure systems are expected to stay to the north, not particularly deep, and avoiding the UK. After storm Amy blows through, the weather will remain changeable and mixed for a few days before higher pressure starts to build in from the south.
Storm Amy will bring a period of disruptive weather, with strong winds and heavy rain, especially in the north. The unsettled theme continues into the weekend and early next week, but there are signs of a more settled, drier spell developing as high pressure builds from the south.
Keep up to date with weather warnings, and you can find the latest forecast on our website, on YouTube, by following us on X and Facebook, as well as on our mobile app which is available for iPhone from the App store and for Android from the Google Play store.
