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are expected to reach 75mph, or even 80mph, in exposed coastal locations today, while inland areas are expected to see gusts of 60-65mph. Storm Debi will move into the North Sea during Monday evening. Storm Debi has developed, in part, because of a very strong jet stream crossing the Atlantic. The core

of snow may affect some of the highest routes, this combining with very strong winds to lead to some difficult travel conditions. At lower levels a combination of heavy rain and very strong winds will dominate.” Met Office warnings highlight the possibility for transport disruption, power cuts

Sea coastlines, Scottish Islands, and other areas of high ground further inland. Heavy rain will accompany the strong winds, particularly in the west, making for very poor weather conditions, especially on roads. For those away from warnings, conditions will still be blustery and wet at times

to 7.5°E, 5°N to 10°N) regions. Probabilities are for 5 categories referred to as: very dry, dry, average, wet and very wet. The category boundaries are defined from 1961-1990 observations, such that the climatological probability for each category in that period is by definition 0.2 (20%). 2

Wet weather June 2019 The UK experienced a spell of very wet weather in mid-June as a low pressure system and associated fronts brought widespread and slow moving heavy rainfall. In parts of Lincolnshire around 2.5 times the monthly average rainfall fell from 10 to 12 June, and there was further

meteo model and CFD operating at urban or even room levels to study air quality at building level? A: The Weather & Climate use case is aiming at ensuring that we have a modelling system as a whole that is fit for purpose that spans the range from very high resolution, very short timescales (weather

they are keeping themselves and their communities safe.   "In this heat please don’t use barbecues when out in the countryside or at local parks.  Be careful not discard cigarettes without making sure they are fully stubbed out and don't drop litter. In these tinder dry conditions it is very easy for a fire

% Feel forecasts are very (49%) or fairly (43%) useful Feel forecasts are very (14%) or fairly (68%) accurate 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 4 Base: all respondents who watch/see/hear weather forecasts Q01, Q02 (1,006) Sig higher than 2019 Sig lower than 2019 4 2. Channels How are the UK

of depths of 20 o C are very weak in HadGEM3 compared to EN4 (not shown) IPSL-CM6A-LR (500 year PIC) CanESM5 (500 year PIC) • Models with weak std devn NSHF (box 3 top right) have weak teleconnections • Physically, heat sources rather than SST patterns drive atmospheric motions 5. Spatial patterns

? 83% 85% 87% 87% 87% 87% 70% 76% 76% 77% 76% 79% 90% 81% Feel forecasts are very (38%) or fairly (52%) useful Feel forecasts are very (15%) or fairly (66%) accurate 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 4 Base: all respondents who watch/see/hear weather forecasts Q01, Q02 (2,054) Key: Significantly