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by strengthening winds, making for a blustery day in exposed locations. Eastern and southeastern parts of the UK are likely to remain dry for much of the day, although the cloud cover means a few spots of rain cannot be ruled out. Temperatures will turn mild for most, with a marked contrast between the colder

A largely dry start to the day across much of the UK, with just a few showers affecting northern Scotland and parts of western coastal areas. Elsewhere, it will be a fine morning with bright or sunny spells developing widely. Through the afternoon, scattered showers are expected to develop

the North Sea affected north-eastern parts at times. The 3rd was cloudier, with isolated showers in some areas, but it brightened up in the east through the day. On the 4th an area of rain spread from the south coast towards eastern England, keeping it cooler, while other areas remained fine. Fog

aspects of present-day climate, which is verified by comparing the model results with observations of the real world. Observations Summer mean rainfall Regional model bias Lower Local model bias Local (2.2km) gives reduced biases in both summer and winter mean rainfall. In winter, bias reduced from

....................................................................................................... 4 2. Proceedings of the workshop ......................................................................................... 5 2.1. Day 1

....................................................................................................... 4 2. Proceedings of the workshop ......................................................................................... 5 2.1. Day 1

A low-pressure system to the west of Ireland will draw a plume of warm Atlantic air up from the south west over much of the country, bringing temperatures up into the teens for many places up to and including New Year’s Day. New Year’s Eve will be mild for most, with temperatures staying in double

EXPLAINED Hazards Five Day Summary This section provides a headline summary of the key hazards over the next five days including the current colour state that has been assigned. Hazards Five Day Summary Maps The Five Day Summary maps are designed to alert the user to the presence of a hazard within

verification at around 120 sites around the UK, giving geographical spread across the UK.  Temperature forecasts are deemed to be ‘accurate’ if they’re correct within 2°C of the verifying observation.    1-day maximum temperature forecasts through winter were 96% accurate, with that figure dropping to 74

to statistical techniques (CCA, EOFs, cross validation) to provide a background to the statistical techniques behind CPT. • ‘Weather within seasonal climate’: Module on advanced use of CPT for predicting rainy day frequencies and thresholds, and a module on CPT to predict onset using a research