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later in the season (56% chance during May-July 2022). The effects of La Niña are likely to remain wide-reaching during the northern hemisphere spring. With a couple of notable exceptions (including East Africa) La Niña, very broadly speaking, tends to increase the likelihood of wetter than normal

Oscillation (ENSO) - Although now declining, sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the equatorial Pacific remain indicative on an ongoing El Niño event. Now past its peak, the current El Niño event is likely to weaken further with a transition to ENSOneutral very likely (85%) in April-June

, but warm or very warm elsewhere, and hot once again in the southeast. READ MORE: What is humidity and how does it affect human health? The hottest day of the current spell is expected on Monday, with temperatures widely exceeding 30°C in central and eastern England, possibly reaching 35°C in London

spells for much of northern England, Scotland and Northern Ireland. “However, as the strong winds and rain associated with Storm Alex clear away from Britain later tonight, another low-pressure system will move towards the UK from the east bringing further very heavy rain to many over the weekend

and there are fewer very cold days - State of the UK Climate report The number of icing days (when the daily maximum temperature stays below 0 °C) has been decreasing since the 1960s. During 2008-2017 a significant area of the UK has had less than one icing day per year on average, compared

those impacts are to occur. Very likely ✓ These impacts can include damage to property, travel delays and cancellations, loss of water supplies, power cuts and, in the most severe cases, bring a danger to life. We show this combination of impact and likelihood in a matrix, which can be seen

intervals, while breezy conditions will persist, particularly in areas downwind of hills. Temperatures will vary significantly across the country. The northwest will feel rather cool, while central, eastern, and southeastern England may see very warm and humid conditions, with highs reaching 23–25°C

, but warm or very warm elsewhere, and hot once again in the southeast. READ MORE: What is humidity and how does it affect human health? The hottest day of the current spell is expected on Monday, with temperatures widely exceeding 30°C in central and eastern England, possibly reaching 34°C in London

, low levels of warming are now found to be far less likely than previously thought. Very high values are slightly less likely. There is much greater certainty that, if left unchecked, global warming would be high enough to bring very severe impacts and risks worldwide.   The study organised

to amplify the pattern across the North Atlantic, pushing the jet stream well to the north of the UK, allowing some very warm air to be drawn north. It’s a marked contrast to the much of meteorological summer, when the UK was on the northern side of the jet stream with cooler air and more unsettled