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• Introduction to seasonal forecasting

  the next few months. Seasonal forecasts provide information about these long-term averages. Why are seasonal forecasts possible? Conditions at the Earth's surface, in particular slow fluctuations in the surface temperature of the global oceans, can influence patterns in the weather. These influences

• Driest July in England since 1935

  High pressure dominated the UK for much of July, pushing any Atlantic influence, and therefore much of the rain, into the northwest and allowing temperatures to build elsewhere. Overall, the UK saw just 56% (46.3mm) of its average rainfall for July, making it the driest July in over 20 years

• 2017: warmest year on record without El Niño

  Provisional figures confirm that 2017 was the warmest year on record without the influence of warming from El Niño.

  spanning 2015-2016 contributed around 0.2°C to the annual average for 2016, which was about 1.1°C above the long-term average from 1850 to 1900. However, the main contributor to warming over the last 150 years is human influence on climate from increasing greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. 2017 remains

• uk_annual_mean_temperature_cmip6_attribution_v1pdf

  the effect of human influence on the occurrence of UK annual mean temperatures exceeding those observed in 2023. While 2023 did not exceed the record set in 2022 (Christidis et al., 2023) it came very close. We provide estimates for the exceedance probability of similar events in the climate

• uk_annual_mean_temperature_cmip6_attribution_v1.pdf

  the effect of human influence on the occurrence of UK annual mean temperatures exceeding those observed in 2023. While 2023 did not exceed the record set in 2022 (Christidis et al., 2023) it came very close. We provide estimates for the exceedance probability of similar events in the climate

• Met Office Deep Dive: Hot weather to bring heatwave for many

  Skip to main content Weather & climate Research programmes Services About us Careers Menu Search site Search Back Weather & climate Everything you need to know about the forecast, and making the most of the weather. Find a forecast Warnings & advice Warnings & advice UK weather warnings UK Storm

• Impact studies should include high-sensitivity climate models

  High-sensitivity climate models should not be excluded when projecting future regional climate impacts because the level of warming measured globally is not always the only good indicator of regional changes, a new study suggests.

  the change in the number of drought events and climate sensitivity. This is because the magnitude of global warming is just one of many factors influencing drought and is often not the most important.  “Our results contradict suggestions that models showing higher warming should be excluded from

• UK Climate Resilience Programme infographics

  The UK Climate Resilience Programme ran from 2019 to 2023. As part of our role in co-leading the programme, we produced various infographics to help communicate its outputs.

  Programme overview and legacy The infographics below show the programme's strategic themes and how it will achieve a lasting legacy.  Download the UK Climate Resilience overview infographic (PDF document) Download the UK Climate Resilience legacy infographic (PDF document) From climate hazard

• Heatwave will ease with thundery breakdown for some

  for September on record is 21.7°C, and this record could be threatened in the coming nights. The Met Office previously completed an attribution study examining the influence of human induced climate change on tropical nights in the UK, which is explored in this newly-published blog.   Heat Health

• Met Office deep dive: a change in the weather and a look back at summer

  an environment where heat could build and linger, especially when high pressure dominated. Minimum overnight temperatures were also widely above average, further contributing to the overall warmth. All these factors point to the influence of climate change. The UK is warming at about 0.25°C per decade