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1 Part A: Transient high-impact lowlikelihood scenarios Summary Scenario Summary HILL-1 Enhanced global warming Global temperature increases well above 4 o C due to very high emissions, stronger carbon cycle feedbacks and/or high climate sensitivity. HILL-2 Rapid aerosol reductions Lower aerosol
of the effect of the transient HILL scenarios on temperature, precipitation and windspeed in January and July for an example location in south east England, together with changes in a 4 o C world (the thick black line). Scenarios HILL-2 to HILL-5 are defined as differences from the 4 o C projections
at 17 to 18 °C across these areas with a 12-hour minimum of 19.6 °C at London St James's Park - exceptionally mild for the time of year. Numerous stations set October minimum temperature records, for example at Cambridge Botanic Garden and Hastings (East Sussex) in 80+ year record lengths. Last updated: 16 October 2018 © Crown Copyright
August heat-wave Southern England experienced a significant heat-wave during early August 2020 as hot, humid air moved north from the near continent. Temperatures exceeded 34°C across parts of the south-east for six consecutive days and there were several tropical nights with overnight temperatures
of the country by dawn, bringing extensive cloud cover and outbreaks of persistent rain across parts of Scotland, Northern England, Wales, the southwest, and Northern Ireland. The rain during the morning tends to fizzle. It’s always going to be wettest over western hills, drier towards the south and east
and strong winds pushed into the northwest. This weather front is moving south and east today petering out as it does so. Behind the rain there is another spell of sunshine and showers, some of which could be wintry over the hills in the north. Showers will, once again, move into the north and west
a band of cloud and rain lying south-west to north-east across the country, with the most persistent rain for hills in north-west England and north-west Wales. South-east of this band, conditions are generally fine, warm or very warm, with variable cloud and sunny spells. Mainland Scotland will see
a band of cloud and rain lying south-west to north-east across the country, with the most persistent rain for hills in north-west England and north-west Wales. South-east of this band, conditions are generally fine, warm or very warm, with variable cloud and sunny spells. Mainland Scotland will see
or higher across the far south-east, with 100 Kt (115 mph) at Shorham (Sussex). The October 1987 storm has been referred to as the worst storm to affect southern England since the Great Storm of 1703 (impacts from the latter were recorded in detail by Daniel Defoe, author of the novel Robinson Crusoe. He
/ 19th 1924 1 33.6 / 3 July 1976 Aberporth, Ceredigion 34.1 / 19th 1942 1 31.8 / 2 August 1995 Valley, Anglesey 33.6 / 19th 1931 1 33.0 / 5 August 2003 Hastings, East Sussex 33.2 / 19th 1931 1 32.3 / 27 June 1976 Auchincruive, Ayrshire 30.7 / 19th 1932 1 30.6 / 29 July 1948 Buxton, Derbyshire 30.1 / 19th
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