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and inclusive co-production for weather and climate services’. Exeter: Met Office. 5. Arrighi, J., Koelle, B., Besa, M.C., Spires, M., Kavonic, J., Scott, D., Kadihasanoglu, A., Bharwani, S. and Jack, C., 2016. Dialogue for decision-making: unpacking the ‘City Learning Lab’ approach. FRACTAL working

Climates. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1017/9781139016476 & Bohnenstengel, S. et al (2014) Available at: https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2144 Page 1 of 9 HOW IS TEMPERATURE CHANGING ACROSS THE UK? CURRENT TRENDS * FUTURE TRENDS ** ANNUAL AVERAGE TEMPERATURE Since the 1961-1990 period annual average

Wales Midlands Hawarden Airport, Flintshire Pitsford, Northamptonshire 37.1 40.2 East Anglia Cambridge, NIAB 39.9 England SW Bude, Corwall 36.0 S Wales England SE & Central S Gogerddan, Ceredigion Heathrow and St James’s Park, London 35.8 40.2 19 July 2022 18 July 2022 19 July 2022 19 July 2022 18 July

. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1017/9781139016476 & Bohnenstengel, S. et al (2014) Available at: https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2144 Page 1 of 9 HOW IS TEMPERATURE CHANGING ACROSS THE UK? CURRENT TRENDS * FUTURE TRENDS ** ANNUAL AVERAGE TEMPERATURE Since the 1961-1990 period annual average

Climates. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1017/9781139016476 & Bohnenstengel, S. et al (2014) Available at: https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2144 Page 1 of 9 HOW IS TEMPERATURE CHANGING ACROSS THE UK? CURRENT TRENDS * FUTURE TRENDS ** ANNUAL AVERAGE TEMPERATURE Since the 1961-1990 period annual average

Climates. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1017/9781139016476 & Bohnenstengel, S. et al (2014) Available at: https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2144 Page 1 of 9 HOW IS TEMPERATURE CHANGING ACROSS THE UK? CURRENT TRENDS * FUTURE TRENDS ** ANNUAL AVERAGE TEMPERATURE Since the 1961-1990 period annual average

(160°E-150°W, 5°S – 5°N), the forecast vs. observed temperature correlation is r=0.84 with a 0.67°C mean RMS error. Forecasts of sea surface temperature in the Atlantic are also skilful: in the tropical Atlantic formation region (5°-85°W, 10°N– 30°N), the forecast vs. observed temperature correlation

to El Niño and La Niña relate only to sea-surface-temperature anomalies in the tropical Pacific Niño3.4 region (120°–170°W, 5°N–5°S). Our references to El Niño, neutral and La Niña conditions generally correspond to sea-surface-temperature (SST) anomalies >0.5°C, between -0.5 and +0.5°C, and <-0.5

/s 0.00 0.03 0.09 0.28 0.90 Figure 4: A priori CH 4 emissions for 2007 interpolated onto the InTEM inversion grid. 5.4 Bayesian cost function and uncertainty elements The cost function within an inversion framework is the tool used to assess the best-fit of the a posteriori emissions and allows

classification is proposed: .Green – No hazard warnings in force. Amber - Potentially dangerous weather is expected. Be prepared. Red – Dangerous and potentially life threatening weather conditions are expected. Take immediate and appropriate action to ensure your safety. The appropriate colour code(s