Search results (2,864)

staying below a critical threshold, say 20KT. There may be times when the Met Office is confident that, whatever happens, the wind should stay below 20KT. At other times, not only is confidence low, there may be, for example, a reasonable chance of 30 KT or more being observed. The probability forecast

from that observable in the recent past. Therefore, even if earth system models are built to reproduce the current conditions realistically, this may tell us little about how well they can capture a threshold. Some known thresholds involve complex processes that are yet to be included in many recent

? Crossing a threshold involves the earth system moving into a state that has different behaviour from that observable in the recent past. Therefore, even if earth system models are built to reproduce the current conditions realistically, this may tell us little about how well they can capture

surrounding UK gripped by prolonged marine heatwave Author: Dr Ségolène Berthou (Scientific Manager - Regional Coupled Modelling) 22 May 2025 Northwest European waters are currently experiencing an extreme marine heatwave, with sea surface temperatures (SSTs) reaching record highs for April and May

close are we to breaking spring records? Author: Press Office 14 May 2025 As we move through May, Spring 2025 is shaping up to be a contender for the record books, particularly when it comes to temperature, rainfall, and sunshine. With data up to May 13, the UK is experiencing a season marked by warmth

are issued when it is likely that the weather will cause some low-level impacts, including some disruption to travel in a few places. Many people may be able to continue with their daily routine, but there will be some that will be directly impacted and so it is important to assess if you could

. In contrast, Scotland and Northern Ireland will see cooler, near-average conditions, with sunny spells and showers mainly focused in the north and northwest. Breezy conditions are expected, especially in Scotland, but winds should ease as the day progresses. The Midlands and southwest may see the odd shower

already started, with the first pollen being detected as early as February in some parts of the country. Our UK Pollen Forecast Manager, Yolanda Clewlow, explains what we can say about this year at present. “The pollen season has already started and people with a sensitivity to tree pollen may have

Office 10-Day Trend: A Mixed Start to Meteorological Summer Author: Press Office 29 May 2025 As we step into meteorological summer, the UK’s weather is already showing its familiar variability. The latest 10-day trend points to a dynamic mix of conditions, with spells of warmth, outbreaks of rain

Forecast of seasonal rainfall in northeast Brazil for March- May 2021 Issued March 2021 NEB_upd_2021 - 1 – © Crown copyright 2008 FORECAST OF NORTHEAST BRAZIL SEASONAL RAINFALL FOR MARCH-MAY 2021 USING EMPIRICAL AND DYNAMICAL METHODS AND ATMOSPHERE AND OCEAN DATA UP TO FEBRUARY 2021 ISSUED March