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, M., Kennedy, S., MacDonald, K. Matthews, A., Milne, K., & Pratt, E. (2023) Musical messages – Creating a bespoke climate story for the Outer Hebrides. Climate Services. 32. 100407. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cliser.2023.100407

Flood Resilience Review 2016. https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/national-flood-resilience-review 4. Thompson V. et al. 2019. Risk and dynamics of unprecedented hot months in South East China. Clim Dyn 52, 2585–2596. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4281-5 5. Jain S. et al. 2020. Current

/s 0.00 0.03 0.09 0.28 0.90 Figure 4: A priori CH 4 emissions for 2007 interpolated onto the InTEM inversion grid. 5.4 Bayesian cost function and uncertainty elements The cost function within an inversion framework is the tool used to assess the best-fit of the a posteriori emissions and allows

to El Niño and La Niña relate only to sea-surface-temperature anomalies in the tropical Pacific Niño3.4 region (120°–170°W, 5°N–5°S). Our references to El Niño, neutral and La Niña conditions generally correspond to sea-surface-temperature (SST) anomalies >0.5°C, between -0.5 and +0.5°C, and <-0.5

(160°E-150°W, 5°S – 5°N), the forecast vs. observed temperature correlation is r=0.84 with a 0.67°C mean RMS error. Forecasts of sea surface temperature in the Atlantic are also skilful: in the tropical Atlantic formation region (5°-85°W, 10°N– 30°N), the forecast vs. observed temperature correlation

on aggregate losses. Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 18, 2933-2949 Coles, S., Heffernan, J., and Tawn, J. (1999). Dependence Measures for Extreme Value Analysis, Extremes, 2, 339–365. Ledford, A. W. and Tawn, J, A. (1996). Statistics for near independence in multivariate extreme values

classification is proposed: .Green – No hazard warnings in force. Amber - Potentially dangerous weather is expected. Be prepared. Red – Dangerous and potentially life threatening weather conditions are expected. Take immediate and appropriate action to ensure your safety. The appropriate colour code(s

of the Royal Society A 380: 20200446 Gedney et al. 2019. Significant feedbacks of wetland methane release on climate change and the causes of their uncertainty, Environmental Research Letters, 14, 8. Pangala, S., Enrich-Prast, A., Basso, L. et al. 2017 Large emissions from floodplain trees close

frequency estimation. Institute of Hydrology, Wallingford, UK, 110 pages. 2 Chan S, Dale M, Gill E and Potter R. 2017. Rainfall Intensity for Sewer Design – Stage 2 Technical Report, UK Water Industry Research Limited, London. 3 Sayers, P.B; Horritt, M; Penning-Rowsell, E; McKenzie, A. (2015) Climate

probabilistic climate change projections. Clim. Change 124, 791–803. doi:10.1007/s10584-014- 1122-3 Pyatt, G., Spencer, J. Hutchby, L., Davani, S., Fletcher, J. and Purdy, K., 2003, Applying Ecological Classification in the Lowlands: A Case Study in the New Forest Inclosures, Forestry Commission Technical Paper