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estimates are restricted to the extent of the Arctic sea ice. This is defined as the area of the Arctic Ocean with at least 15% ice coverage. In the long-term average, this area varies from 14.4-16.5 million km2 in March to 3.6-8.0 million km2 in September (based on data for 1979-2017). The minimum

receive NSWW – 1,280 Met Office | Emergency Responder Survey | Met Office Debrief | May 2017 | External Use Only 3 Ratings of NSWWS are very positive 88% rate factors as at least ‘good’ Q15 In general, how would you rate the National Severe Weather Warnings Service on each of the following? Base

clearer skies during the second half of the night. “There is some uncertainty just in regards to exactly where this rain will be placed on Tuesday, but at the moment at least, southwest England, parts of southern Wales could see quite a lot of rainfall during the day and there may be some localized

to around 12-13°C overnight. Just a little fresher for Scotland, parts of Northern Ireland where we do see some clearer skies during the second half of the night. “There is some uncertainty just in regards to exactly where this rain will be placed on Tuesday, but at the moment at least, southwest

of monthly-mean rainfall due to external forcings is very high compared to ENSO-ISMR •High (low) COV and ExtVAR for AI, CI, NWI in Jun/Sep (Jul/Aug) •SI has least monthly variation in both COV and ExtVAR Correlations: Regional Rainfall with Climate Index •Effect of regional teleconnections on ISMR (mean CI

at different types of drought and the likelihood of human influence on them. There is at least medium confidence that less precipitation has been observed across significant parts of Africa and South America. Across each continent there is evidence much of Africa, western North America

received less than 40% of their average summer rainfall whereas in contrast, parts of Cumbria have already received close to their full summer average. All four UK nations have recorded above average sunshine so far this summer, with Northern Ireland seeing the least and England the most

EXPLAINING EXTREME EVENTS OF 2011 FROM A CLIMATE PERSPECTIVE Thomas C. Peterson, Peter A. Stott and Stephanie Herring, Editors Using a variety of methodologies, six extreme events of the previous year are explained from a climate perspective. INTRODUCTION Peter A. Stott—Met Office Hadley Centre

contact the Customer Centre on: Tel: 0370 900 0100 Fax: 0370 900 5050 Email: [email protected] If you are outside the UK: Tel: +44 330 135 0000 Fax: +44 330 135 0050 Far left: Met Office crest 1911—1939. Left: BAE 1910—13 logo. British Antarctic Expedition 1910—1913 The Met Office would like

was centred to the north-west of the UK, after which pressure was lower for much of the time, especially to the west. Mean pressure for the month was above average over Scandinavia and below normal around the Azores, with an anomalous easterly flow over the UK. 250hPa wind speed and direction