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) enhanced amplification of changes in the Arctic leading to substantial circulation changes, (v) abrupt ocean circulation change, and (vi) enhanced sea level rise due to rapid melting of the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets. Each narrative scenario storyline is accompanied by an indicative quantitative

, but a call to action.” Sea level rise Tide gauge records since the 1900s provide observational evidence that sea level rise around the UK is accelerating, with two-thirds of the observed sea level rise over that period happening in just over the last three decades. For the first time this report highlights

Chair: Deborah Villarroel-Lamb, UWI 12.30 – 13.30 LUNCH 13.30 – 15.00 Discussion: Communicating Climate Risk Chair: Dr Jane Strachan, Met Office 15.00 – 15.30 BREAK 15.30- 17.00 Break out group One: Co-development of Caribbean Sea Level Rise Tool Break out group Two: Future Climate change impacts

additional sea level rise 9. We have different levels of confidence for different products 10. Take care when comparing/combining variables 11. UK climate projections are likely to evolve 1. Introduction Our understanding and ability to simulate the climate is advancing all the time but our climate

developments, including scientifically contentious areas such as Antarctic contribution to sea level rise, and implemented a rigorous approach to combine multiple lines of evidence. “Feedback from the scientific community also highlighted that her contribution went far beyond her scientific knowledge

throughout the Earth system, from the atmosphere to the deep ocean, due to human-caused greenhouse gas emissions. This observed heating of the climate system has increased in-line with greenhouse gas concentrations and is driving the observed acceleration in sea-level rise since the mid-20th century

user needs Coastal erosion narrative UKCP18 demo project starts UKCP18 sea-level rise and storm data made available Update UKCP18 Demo Project Done In progress/not started but committed to doing Engage with ongoing research Input data into existing models and mapping Use UKCP18 in upcoming research

, caveats and details related to marine projections data. Please note that subsequent updates to the Marine projections are not included in this report. This includes the time-mean sea-level projections update, and the updated sea-level rise and storm surge data. Guidance for both of these can be found

. In Manila the sea level increase has been compounded by humaninduced land subsidence (e.g. due to extensive groundwater extraction) of up to 1 metre per decade over the same period. Globally, the IPCC projects a sea level rise of between 0.52 and 0.98 metres by 2100 and an increase in the rate

studies suggest tropical cyclones may become more intense in the future with stronger winds and heavier precipitation. But there is limited consensus among climate models on the regional variation in tropical cyclone frequency. Sea-level rise: Increases in mean sea-level threaten to inundate