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their specified validity. Exceptionally, if one WAFC is required to backup the other at short notice, the SIGWX forecasts may be issued 2 hours later than the normal schedule (see 2.1.4 below). 2.1.3. WAFC SIGWX forecasts are provided for 'fixed validity times'. This is as specified in ICAO Annex 3

during March-May 2023. La Niña, very broadly speaking, tends to increase the likelihood of wetter than normal conditions across many land areas of the tropics with a couple of notable exceptions (e.g. East Africa). More information on typical impacts can be found here https://www.metoffice.gov.uk

with what is expected from global warming. • There are also indications of a developing pattern of cooling in the north Atlantic sub-polar gyre, which suggests that a change in the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation may be starting to occur. The implications for the climate of the UK and western Europe

the examination of how changes in local weather extremes may be realised over the coming years and decades. Since twelve simulations are available, we can determine robustly their projected signals in local extremes. The transient simulations provide a set of plausible outcomes for each year through time

: Consistent with a warming climate, warmer than normal conditions are likely or very likely across the whole continent. The exception being small parts of the Sahel, which may be influenced by increased Harmattan winds. However, this effect is likely to be very small and of very little impact. 3-Month Outlook

in single figures and some of us in rural areas may even have a touch of frost overnight.” Despite still being in meteorological summer, the occurrence of a ground frost in August is not especially unusual for the UK.  In Scotland, a reasonably widespread ground frost has been recorded during Augusts 2016

the Environment Agency,  Natural Resources Wales and SEPA. There may be some disruption to transport, with some difficult driving conditions and possible road closures. Stay up to date with the forecast in your area on the Met Office website or via our mobile app.” Get advice on travelling in adverse

and the health and safety of other people who may be affected by our activities. Health and Safety are integral to good business and core to the Met Office purpose of ‘helping you make better decisions to stay safe and thrive’. Our commitments include the following: • Appoint a member of the Executive

of projected changes at a given probability level. • To understand the level of uncertainty associated with each 25 km grid square which may be helpful to inform the use of projections from two separate locations. It can also be used to assess confidence in the projections for any specific location

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